Secular Stagnation and the Big Balance Sheet Economy

Otaviano Canuto, Policy Center for the New South

Private balance sheets have risen relative to GDP in advanced economies in the last decades, in tandem with a trend of decline in long-term real interest rates. Asset-driven macroeconomic cycles, along with a structural trend of rising influence of finance on income growth and distribution, have become part of the landscape. Underlying secular trends of stagnation may also be suggested, making the macroeconomic dynamics dependent on the balance sheet economy getting bigger and bigger.

6 Common Online Banking Mistakes and How to Avoid Them

In recent years, online banking has continued to grow as banks offer more and more online and mobile banking services. In fact, 73% of banking customers use online banking at least once a month. Similarly, 59% use mobile banking at least once a month. 

With this rapid rise in popularity comes some concerns for bank account holders. Luckily, it is easy to avoid the most common online banking mistakes. We’ll take a look at what to keep an eye on and how you can make online banking a breeze.

1. Login Safety Mistakes

One of the most common banking mistakes is not having adequate safety measures set for online banking services. You should never use auto-login features. This can make it too easy for someone else to access your account. 

Instead, use a password or biometrics login on your phone. If possible, you should also use two-factor authentication to ensure additional safety. 

It’s also important to choose a unique username and password, one that you do not use anywhere else. Your bank may be taking strict online security measures but other websites you use may not. 

If a hacker finds out your password on another website and then learns that you have used it in multiple places, they could have easy access to everything, including your bank account. For similar reasons, you should also change your password regularly, so if a security breach does occur your account is not at risk for long.

Speaking of passwords, it is imperative that your bank account password is very strong. Use a mixture of uppercase and lowercase letters, symbols, and numbers. Make sure it’s not easy to guess either.

2. Unsecure Online Access

How you access your online bank account is also important. This is particularly true if you plan on accessing your online bank in public or through a device you don’t own. 

Don’t bank on public wi-fi if you can avoid it. You also shouldn’t use public computers. Even if you log out completely, hackers can still record keystrokes to gain access to your accounts.

When using your bank’s website, make sure the web address includes “https://”. The “s” is important as it indicates that there are extra security features protecting you.

If you want to download your bank’s app, make sure it is the official one. Download it via iTunes or Google Play. You may even be able to download it through your bank’s website. Either way, make sure your phone is also protected with a strong password too.

3. Not Checking Banking Activity

Another common online banking mistake is not frequently checking your online banking activity. If fraudulent activity occurs, it’s important to catch it early so you can talk to your bank and rectify any issues. 

But in order to do that, you need to actively be aware of what is going on within your account. Online and mobile banking make it easy to view your recent activity. Simply look through your transactions once a month to make sure everything is how it should be. 

If you notice anything is off, you should then immediately get in touch with your bank. Doing this does not take a lot of time and could prevent you from having to deal with much larger problems down the road. 

Additional online banking services can make staying on top of your account even easier. Many banks allow you to enrol in email, text, or push alerts that are triggered by certain activities. These could include unusual activity, balance thresholds, or transactions meeting certain criteria. 

These options are usually available in your profile or through the security features section of the website. Signing up for these options lets you know about problems with your account between times when you check on it. This can help you keep an eye out for anything unusual.

4. Handling Mobile Deposited Checks

Being able to remotely deposit checks can save you a lot of time. But, it’s important that you handle mobile check deposits correctly.

Instead of throwing the check away as soon as you deposit it, keep it for two weeks. It takes a few days for the check to clear. If there is a problem reading the check, you’ll have proof of the correct amount. Afterwards, be sure to shred the check, instead of only throwing it in the trash.

5. Mistakes When Making Online Payments

Online payments make it easy to send money to others and pay bills. But, you need to be very careful when doing these actions.

If you are scheduling a payment, make sure the date is correct. Sending it too late could cause late fees if it’s a bill. Also double-check the amount you enter. Even a slight change in decimal can make a huge difference.

Finally, be sure you follow through with the payment. Online banking portals may have multiple steps. Follow through and make sure you end up with a confirmation page or email. Otherwise, you could owe late fees for your bills if the payment isn’t fully completed.

6. Sending and Receiving Money 

If you send money to another person or account, be sure to double-check their details very carefully. If the details are wrong, you could send the money to a different person or business. This is very difficult to correct as the other person would need to approve returning the money.

If you expect to receive money from someone else, also make sure the details you give them are correct. Otherwise, you may not receive the money you are expecting. This can be difficult to fix too if the person accidentally sends it to someone else.

Avoid Online Banking Mistakes

Online banking is an important part of modern financial management. This is why avoiding common online banking mistakes is so important. Taking these measures can save time, money, and a lot of potential heartache. 

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7 Invaluable Benefits of a Financial Planner

If you are serious about managing your money and accumulating wealth, the benefits of a financial planner can take all the stress and burden away from doing it yourself.

Sure, you could feel competent at investing and money management, but do you really have the time to go in-depth? 

Yet, opting to work with a financial planner won’t suit everyone. There are pros and cons when using a financial planner or adviser, but we do think the benefits we’re going to discuss are well worth considering.

So let’s check out seven benefits of a financial planner.

1. Full-Time Professionalism

The first and obvious benefit of choosing to work with a financial planner is that they are full-time professionals, making investment decisions day in day out.

They will have a wealth of knowledge and plenty of tips about where to invest money. Plus, they can prove to you with past clients the sort of returns they achieve. 

With all their training and know-how, it would be hard to compete with what they are capable of in terms of investing and managing your money wisely year on year. 

Keep in mind, however, just because someone is a qualified and experienced financial adviser, it still doesn’t give you any solid guarantees that you won’t lose money. Going with a financial adviser is always a risk.

But typically, a financial planner will run you through different investment options with varying calculations of risk attached to them. Ultimately, you will be the decision-maker in the process. Your financial planner just handles the more technical aspects of your investments, as well as offering tips and advice.

2. Tax Advice

When anyone invests their money and makes capital gains on their wealth, tax is always an issue. In some cases, taxes can destroy the point of investing as they can simply erode away your gains to a pittance.

A financial planner should be experienced enough to know how to navigate the tax realm in your favor. They will tend to let you know various options you can choose to help reduce your tax burden, and they’ll be up-to-date on new regulations and changes in the law.

3. Objectivity

One key benefit of a financial planner is that they are likely to be a lot more objective than yourself when investing your money. 

This benefit is strongly linked to the professionalism of a financial planner. They are just doing their job investing your money – they don’t have emotional attachments as you may have. 

When emotions get in the way of investing, you’re treading on a pathway to ruin. Objectivity is essential to make wise investment decisions, and a financial planner will give you that.

They can either consult with you about investment decisions they’d like to take for you and explain them clearly.

4. Partnership

A financial planner doesn’t just get the keys to your car to drive off alone into the sunset. They will be available to discuss things with you and keep you updated on what’s going on with your hard-earned cash.

A financial planner is someone you can collaborate with, they’ll listen to you, and they’ll try their best to understand your wants and needs.

As well, the communication aspect of your partnership can be extremely beneficial. By speaking out ideas and strategies allowed, they can become more obviously viable, or conversely, something to avoid.

Plus, there are plenty of tips out there that will help you monitor your financial adviser. 

5. Proactivity

This benefit is linked in a sense to the points of objectivity and professionalism.

A financial planner will be poised and ready to anticipate almost every eventuality that could happen in the markets and with your money. They don’t let their emotions get the better of them, which is easier for them since they are trained professionals.

They will also seek out new investment ideas that you might be aware of and get you tied up in some lucrative opportunities ahead of the curve.

Furthermore, they can implement any ideas that you may have with speed, which you might not be capable of doing yourself.

6. Organization

For many of us with busy schedules and limited time, managing the flow, saving, and investment of our money can become overwhelming.

It may be that you’re losing money that can be easily kept if your finances and payments are restructured in a more organized and logical manner. 

Having control over your finances can relieve a lot of stress, and it could even be the case that you save more money by actually paying for the services of a financial planner. 

It’s funny how they don’t properly teach us the ins and outs of taking care of money and investing at school. Now you have the opportunity to see your financial planner, not only as a money manager but a teacher of investing and finance too. 

7. Relaxation and Free Time

Wouldn’t it be amazing to have all your financial worries set aside and dealt with by someone you can trust?

Most of us have enough on our plates already with work, family, and other commitments. Choosing a financial planner’s expertise will surely give you the peace of mind you deserve and some much-needed relaxation. 

The Benefits of a Financial Planner

We’ve just mentioned only seven benefits of a financial planner. There are loads more benefits to take advantage of if you decide to take the leap and regain control of your finances.

It will be like starting off on a new journey into the unknown at first, but once you get your bearings and develop a rapport with your financial planner, we think you’ll be surprised at the positive changes that will occur.

Please check out our blog for more financial advice and wisdom.

The Pandemic Will Leave Scars on the Job Market

Policy Center for the New South

Also: Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, Capital Finance International

All economies affected by the pandemic have something in common. The rate of vaccination of the population—quite different in different countries—has been the main factor determining the prospects for the resumption of economic activity, as it is a race against local waves of transmission of the virus.

Personal contact-intensive services have borne the economic brunt of the pandemic. To the extent that vaccination enables them to restart, one may even be able to witness some temporary dynamism in the sector because of pent-up demand. However, international tourism will not be included at the outset since vaccination will have to reach an advanced level both at the origin and destination of travelers.

But let us not be deceived: the pandemic will leave scars and countries will not return to where they were. There will be a need for retraining and job reallocation for part of the populations of all countries.

The pandemic is leaving a trail of unemployment, particularly affecting minorities, low-skilled workers and, in Emerging Market and Developing Economies, women, who predominantly occupy jobs in contact-intensive services. Figure 1 displays estimates presented in chapter 4 of the IMF April World Economic Outlook released on March 31.

Figure 1 – Average Unemployment Rate Change in Percentage Points
Figure 1: Average Unemployment Rate Change in Percentage Points. Source: IMF (2021), World Economic Outlook, April (ch. 4)

Before the pandemic, it was already known that ongoing technological changes—automation and digitalization—were posing challenges in terms of the need for training or retraining for part of the workforce. Well then! The response of companies and consumers to the pandemic has deepened these trends and is not expected to be entirely reversed.

A February 2021 report by the McKinsey Global Institute estimated that in eight countries (China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States), more than 100 million workers will have to find new, more qualified jobs by 2030. This is 25% more than they had previously projected for developed countries. Figure 2 shows their estimates of shifts in occupations by 2030, with a relative rise in healthcare and science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), while jobs in food service and customer sales and service roles decline. Less-skilled office support roles would also tend to shrink.

Figure 2 – The mix of occupations may shift by 2030 in the post-COVID-19 scenario
Figure 2: The mix of occupations may shift by 2030 in the post-COVID-19 scenario. Source: McKinsey Global Institute (2021). The future of work after COVID-19, February.

Why? Many of the practices adopted during the pandemic are likely to persist. Where done, consumer surveys indicate that sales via e-commerce, which have grown substantially during the crisis, are not expected to shrink too much. Also, remote work will not be fully reversed, with the hybrid organization of work processes becoming more common. The fact that employees in remote occupations have worked more hours and with greater productivity during the pandemic will encourage continued telework.

McKinsey suggests that changes in “work geography” will have consequences for urban centers and workers employed in services, including restaurants, hotels, shops, and building services—25% of jobs in the United States before the pandemic, according to David Autor and Elisabeth Reynolds (The Nature of Work after the COVID Crisis: Too Few Low-Wage Jobs; July 2020). Indeed, demand for local services in cities has dropped dramatically as remote work has increased, regardless of confinement.

Autor and Reynolds indicated four trends for the world of work after the pandemic. In addition to automation, they highlighted the increase in remote work, the reduction of density of workplaces in urban centers, and business consolidation. The latter is due to the growing dominance of large firms in many sectors, something exacerbated by the bankruptcies of smaller and more vulnerable companies.

All these trends have negative impacts on low-income earners and the distribution of income. They tend to increase the efficiency of processes in the long run, however, leading to harsh consequences in the short and medium terms for workers in personal services, who are generally not present among the highest paid. Workers at the top of the wage pyramid, including professionals in STEM, will see their opportunities grow.

Technological progress is one of the main causes of the increase in income inequality in advanced countries since the 1990s. The acceleration of inequality with the pandemic therefore tends to intensify the challenges. In a way, it can be said that the pandemic is accelerating history, rather than changing it.

The role of public policies will be central in the post-COVID-19 world, both in strengthening social protection—including through unemployment insurance and income transfer programs—and in the requalification of workers. Instead of denying technological advancement, it is better that public authorities help people to adapt, minimizing the resulting scarring.

Otaviano Canuto, based in Washington, D.C, is a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings Institution, an adjunct assistant professor at SIPA – Columbia University, a professorial lecturer of international affairs at the Elliott School of International Affairs – George Washington University, and principal of the Center for Macroeconomics and Development. He is a former vice-president and a former executive director at the World Bank, a former executive director at the International Monetary Fund and a former vice-president at the Inter-American Development Bank. He is also a former deputy minister for international affairs at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance and a former professor of economics at University of São Paulo and University of Campinas, Brazil.

Top 7 Factors to Consider When Choosing a Bank

Are you looking for a new and trusted bank to handle your financial services? Choosing a bank isn’t always easy. While it’s tempting to just go with the bank that you’ve always used, when your financial needs change, you need to look at your options to find the best one for you. 

But how do you choose? What should you keep in mind when you need a new bank?

We have a few factors for you to consider. Keep reading to learn more so you can find your new bank with ease. 

1. Your Banking Needs

So what kind of bank are you looking for, anyway?

Depending on your specific needs, you might choose banks that cater to them. For example, are you looking for a basic business bank account, or is this for your personal bank account?

Are you trying to combine the two? 

When you’re looking for a bank, don’t be afraid to ask about how they treat each kind of account and the specific benefits that they offer that relate to these accounts.

If you have a business in need of a bank, what kind of support does the bank offer? Are there staff members available that can advise you on business growth? Can the bank scale with your business? 

A great personal bank doesn’t equal a great business bank. While many banks offer adequate services for both, it doesn’t hurt to check. 

2. Bank Perks

Many banks offer great perks to new members, and there’s nothing wrong with trying to take advantage of them. What is your bank of choice willing to offer you?

Some banks offer a money bonus (like a gift card) when you join. Others may have discounts on hotels, transportation, or other necessities that are exclusive to their members. 

Bank perks shouldn’t be your primary decision-makers, but they don’t hurt. 

3. Your Credit Score

Did you know that some banks filter clients based on their credit scores? While having a normal credit score is often enough, some banks may favour you if you have a high credit score. 

Credit requirements often only apply to people who are trying to open a business account. The bank wants to ensure that you’re a secure client, and they have enough clients that they’re able to pick and choose.

Before you choose a bank, check on credit requirements and work on building or maintaining your credit score. 

4. The Locations (or Lack Thereof)

Are you used to having a bank that’s in a brick and mortar location? There are a few things that you want to keep in mind when you’re trying to choose in that case.

First, how accessible is the bank for you? Are there multiple locations that make it easy to access your required services on the go?

It’s a good idea to choose a bank that has a location somewhere that you frequent. For example, many grocery stores have banks nearby or even within the building for easy access.

Also, keep ATMs in mind. It’s annoying to find yourself needing to withdraw money only to be hit with ATM fees because your bank’s ATM isn’t available. If there are insufficient bank or ATM locations and you’re someone that spends a lot of time travelling around, you might want to consider another bank.

That said, it’s getting more popular for banks to move online and get rid of brick and mortar options. Consider whether or not you’re comfortable with this.

These online banks are easy to access wherever you are, but when it comes to withdrawing cash without fees, they’re lacking. While they often offer easy online support and chat options, they also don’t have the in-person interactions that many people rely on. 

If you value personal connections and the ability to go to a physical location to get help or withdraw money, in-person bank services might be best for you. If you value ease of use and accessibility, online banks are also great. 

5. Digital Options

Most banks, even if they have a “real” location, also offer digital services. This combines the in-person features of a brick and mortar bank with some of the accessibility and perks of an online bank.

When you’re looking into your bank, ask about their digital services.

Some smaller banks have insufficient digital options. Their sites might be clunky, slow, or difficult to use, and they sometimes don’t have all of the features of larger bank websites.

This doesn’t make small banks bad, and it doesn’t mean that all small banks have problematic websites. 

A good bank website should allow you to get support, check your bank statements, move money around for online purchases or transfers, and make it easy to open up secondary accounts (like savings accounts). If you have a specific digital service in mind, ask about it before you make your choice. 

6. Savings Account Options

Speaking of savings accounts, they aren’t all the same. 

While safety is the primary concern with a savings account, you should also look into interest rates. A savings account with a strong interest rate can protect your money (in a small way, at least) against inflation. 

A good savings account works as a slow investment. An account with no interest (or low interest) should be a red flag. 

7. Basic Services

What kinds of common banking services are you looking for from your new bank? 

Regardless of whether the bank is for business or personal use, you want to know that you’ll be able to access the services that you rely on for your banking. 

For example, are you someone who likes to have a tax professional on hand? Good bankers are often able to handle difficult tax questions and concerns. How does this bank handle loans? 

There are plenty of services that you want to keep in mind when you’re choosing a bank. Make a list and compare it against the services listed on their website, or call to confirm. 

Choosing a Bank Isn’t as Easy as It Seems

There are plenty of options for banks, more so now that online banks are so common. This makes choosing a bank confusing and sometimes overwhelming.

If you keep these factors in mind next time you’re trying to set up a new bank account, you’ll be one step closer to finding a bank that you love and trust. Choosing a bank is a big commitment, so don’t take it lightly. 

Are you looking for more helpful financial resources? Check out our journal for everything that you need to know to stay updated on business, economics, and finance. 

Global Inequality

Otaviano Canuto, Policy Center for the New South

The global trend towards increasing globalization since the 1990s seems to have had two different distributional consequences: income inequality between countries has declined, while economic inequality within countries has increased. However, technological progress has made the biggest contribution to rising income inequality over the past two decades. Domestic policies – fiscal policies, social protection – are the locus where inequality is to be tackled.

China’s Economic Rebalancing

Otaviano Canuto, Policy Center for the New South

China’s growth trajectory in the second decade of the century has been one of a rebalancing toward a new growth pattern, one in which domestic consumption is to rise relative to investments and exports, while a drive toward consolidating local insertion up the ladder of value added in global value chains also takes place. Services should also keep rising relative to manufacturing. Declining GDP growth rates from two digits in previous decades to 6% in 2019 – and likely lower ahead – would be the counterpart to rising wages and domestic mass-consumption, and to the transition toward higher weights of services and high tech.

We point out two major challenges in the rebalancing. First, the transition toward a less investment- and export-dependent growth model has been taking place from a starting point of exceptionally low consumption-to-GDP ratios. Besides high profit-to-wages ratios, low levels of public social protection and spending lead to high household savings. An additional challenge comes from the lack of progress in rebalancing between private- and state-owned enterprises, something that is taking a toll on productivity.

Trade Globalization

Otaviano Canuto, Policy Center for the New South

In the 1990s and 2000s, the world manufacturing production to a substantial extent moved from advanced countries to some developing countries. This was the result of the combination of an increase of the labor supply in the global market economy, trade opening, and technological transformations that allowed for fragmentation of production processes. As a result, foreign trade expanded, and world poverty diminished. Such trade globalization process stabilized in the 2010s and tends to be partially reversed by the new wave of technological changes.

It’s Not Too Late! How to Build Wealth in Your 40s

Did you know that one in three older people only begin to start retirement planning two years ahead of time? You can see how this can make planning for retirement stressful, confusing, and can leave a lot to be desired. However, this also means you’re not alone and that building wealth in your 40s isn’t impossible. 

In fact, it’s never too late to begin building wealth and planning for retirement. However, it’s important that you begin with a strategy that makes sense so that you’re not throwing your hard-earned money away. 

Read on to learn how to build wealth in your 40s with our straightforward guide! 

Create an Emergency Fund

Since retirement is still years away, it’s important that you start an emergency fund sooner rather than later. This is where you’ll set aside money that you’ll use only in times of emergency. For instance, if you lose your job and need to pay rent, experience a major health issue, or need to do immediate repairs on your car or home. 

For emergency funds, it’s recommended to put aside enough money that will cover three to six months of living costs. How much you contribute is your own personal choice. If you have multiple streams of income, you may be able to set aside less. 

Deal With Debt

You next need to deal with any debt. With high-interest rates and a tanking credit score, debt can put a hamper on future plans as well as hinder your ability to put money towards retirement if you’re only paying the minimum each month. High-interest debt such as credit cards, loans, and car payments should be dealt with as soon as possible. 

Your mortgage payments may be able to remain the same if you’re near the final years of the mortgage. However, it may be helpful to make extra payments towards your mortgage in the early years in order to reduce your interest payments later on. 

Retirement Plans

Once you have an ample emergency fund and you’ve handled your debt, it’s time to focus on your retirement plans. Regardless of how you plan to spend your retirement, it’s recommended to maximise your employer contributions. You may also want to consider voluntary contributions because you’ll be able to get tax relief on your contributions up to the limit of £40,000.

If you’ve already made the maximum allowable contributions and are still willing and able to pay more, you still have options with the carry forward allowance. This allows you to use any unused allowances from the previous three years in the current year, as long as you were part of a pension scheme during those years. 

If you’re not able to contribute the maximum to your retirement plan currently, we still recommend using a retirement calculator. This helps you visualise your retirement in concrete terms. If you have trouble parting with your income, this may make it easier–you’ll be able to visualise how you’ll be living in 20 or so years! 

Limit Risk

Many people feel the need to take on some investment risk because they want to make up for the lost time. This is because the potential returns are higher, though those returns are far less guaranteed. However, it’s important to limit your risk, as you have far less time to recover from losses. 

A conservative level of risk would be to invest a percentage equivalent to your age in bonds, while the rest goes into stock. However, it’s important to speak with financial planners or accountants before you even begin making investments. They’ll be able to help you decide on how much to invest as well as the risk you’re able to handle. 

Life Insurance

If you don’t have life insurance now, it’s important to get sooner rather than later, as the policies are more affordable the younger you are. Many people have life insurance policies with their workplaces, but if you started with your company years ago, it may be worth speaking with the human resource staff about upgrading your package or policy or add second life insurance.

It’s also important that you add any additional family members or children to your policy. Last but not least, if you don’t go to a doctor every year, you may want to consider no exam policies that aren’t as stringent when it comes to yearly check-ups.

Set Your Priorities

When you start saving for retirement in your 40s, it may feel selfish if you have children or other dependent family members. As your retirement account begins to grow, you may feel the urge to take out some in order to send your children on vacation or help them more with college. However, it’s important to remember that your children still have their lives ahead of them. 

As you get older, it’s important that you’re able to help yourself and your spouse. By saving for retirement and making the right financial decisions, your children won’t have to worry about you as you grow older! 

How to Build Wealth in Your 40s: Start Planning Today 

It’s never too late to start building your wealth or plan for retirement, even when you’re in your 40s. When it comes to financial planning tips, the best takeaway is to start planning your strategy today. For instance, if you don’t have an emergency fund, we recommend starting with this first. 

If you lose your job or you need to make sudden medical payments, you’ll be taken care of with an emergency fund to dip into. Next, we recommend taking care of any high-interest debt that impacts your ability to contribute towards your pension. 

Maximise your contributions as much as possible, and try to visualise your retirement with the help of a calculator. Now that you know how to build wealth in your 40s, you’ll be well on your way to a comfortable retirement. 

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