Markets DISMISS Trump impeachment – but monitor China trade relations and Coronavirus

The bullish financial markets are indifferent to the Trump impeachment trial – more concerning is the U.S.-China trade deal and the Coronavirus, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial services and advisory organisations.

The comments from deVere Group chief executive, Nigel Green, come as U.S. President Donald Trump’s historic impeachment trial got underway on Tuesday in the Senate, with Democrats calling for his removal from office and Republicans determined to have him acquitted.

Mr Green says: “A major geopolitical event such as the impeachment trial of a U.S. President would, typically, send shock waves through financial markets.

“This has not been the case here. The seemingly relentlessly bullish markets have largely shown indifference to the impeachment process. 

“This is because investors see the likelihood of Trump being removed from the White House following a Senate trial as almost zero.”

He continues: “However, what is far more likely to cause market jitters in the coming weeks are vulnerable trade relations between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies.

“U.S.-China phase one deal has stopped additional tariffs being imposed on each other’s goods.  However, it does not address serious structural issues of trade between two vastly different economies, one which has enormous state capacity. In addition, the sheer number of goods – amounting to $200bn –that China will need to buy from the U.S. could, ultimately, make the deal unworkable.

“The hard part is negotiations yet to come.”

Mr Green goes on to add: “Markets will also be weighing concerns regarding the spread of the Coronavirus that has afflicted hundreds in China so far – as hundreds of millions prepare to travel during the Lunar New Year period. It’s the largest annual human migration on Earth.

“The World Health Organisation is meeting on Wednesday to discuss the situation.  An upscaling of the threat could depress markets and hit consumer sentiment and spending.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “This bull market isn’t bothered about Trump’s impeachment trial. It will be closely monitoring other major issues, including the U.S.-China trade dispute – the far-reaching impact of which is likely to outlive Trump’s presidency.”

UNCTAD’s Global Investment Trends Monitor

It is my pleasure to share with you the latest issue of UNCTAD’s Global Investment Trends Monitor with the first full-year estimates for 2019.

Global foreign direct investment (FDI) remained flat in 2019, at $1.39 trillion, a 1% decline from a revised $1.41 trillion in 2018. This is against the backdrop of weaker macroeconomic performance and policy uncertainty for investors, including trade tensions.

FDI flows to developed countries remained at a historically low level, decreasing by a further 6% to an estimated $643 billion. Flows to developing economies were unchanged at $695 billion. Flows to transition economies rose by two thirds to $57 billion.

Trends in selected economies:

– FDI in the United Kingdom down 6% as Brexit unfolds.

– Hong Kong, China divestments cause a 48% FDI decline in turbulent times.

– Singapore up 42% in a buoyant ASEAN region.

– Zero-growth of flows to both the United States and China.

– Brazil up 26% at the start of a privatization programme.

– German inflows triple as MNEs extend loans to foreign affiliates in a year of slow growth.

Looking ahead, UNCTAD expects FDI flows to rise marginally in 2020 on the back of further modest growth of the world economy.

For the latest issue of the Global Investment Trends Monitor and the UNCTAD Investment Policy Monitor, please click here. An in-depth analysis of FDI trends will feature in the forthcoming World Investment Report 2020, to be published in June 2020.

By James X Zhan

Director, Investment and Enterprise
Lead, World Investment Report
United Nations Conference on Trade & Development
Palais des Nations, Geneva
http://www.unctad.org/wir
http://www.worldinvestmentforum.org
http://investmentpolicyhub.unctad.org

The Link: The world’s biggest taboo we dare not discuss

Although it should be a relationship we are all most concerned about, it remains under wraps. “The Link”, as we call it, is the critical connection between equal opportunities for women, overpopulation and the problem of climate change.

Let us start with demographics. The world is heavily overpopulated, and according to some estimates by as much as 300%. This not only has an impact upon things like housing availability and the level urbanization, but also – more fundamentally – on consumption of the world’s finite and barely renewable resources and its vulnerability to famine. Overcrowding on a wide scale is strongly correlated with poverty, social unrest, crime, pandemics, large scale economic migrations and, in turn, to pollution and climate change.

But what makes this subject a political “hot potato” is the fact that women, given true equal rights, will self-limit population growth and the coexistence of rapid population growth in some regions and fears of depopulation in others. Germany, Italy and China, for instance, face the prospect of reducing indigenous populations as women marry later (or not at all), have smaller families or do not have any children at all. Even though this should be an advantage to a country in the face of growing automation, it is a political crisis because governments see population numbers as correlating with their country’s status in the world.

Companies also want population growth, because more population equals more consumers and available labour. However, the biggest driving force in population growth is the cultural norm of “the family”. In many countries the pressure exists from within the extended family to conform through marriage by a certain age and the production of children. This right is also sacrosanct and even discussing it can be a tricky process. Moreover, even in the developing world it is increasingly being supported through statutory family friendly employment policies.

Back at the turn of the century books were even being published such as “The Baby Boon: How Family-Friendly America Cheats the Childless” by Elinor Burkett. There was then even the vestiges of a movement to assert the rights of single, childless (never called “child free”) workers and claim parity with those who received often generous employee benefits. But nothing truly came of it. Yet, it remains the big issue because it not only costs the employer and taxpayer a large slice of GDP to support those expanding their families, but there is also a direct link between every birth, the drain on finite global resources and other social/environmental problems.

Robin Chater, Secretary-General of the Federation of International Employers (FedEE), has addressed this issue at conferences several times, knowing that invariably the message will be seen as an attack on the family. However, because the issue is sensitive does not mean that it should be ignored. Robin reflects: “I can recall standing up at an international conference organised by ‘The Economist’ in Athens a few years ago. I produced lots of evidence to illustrate how much the world was overpopulated, then linked it directly to climate change – on many fronts, as well as more people equals more CO2 – and finally demonstrated that population growth was strongly linked to women’s rights. The more equal the society the more well balanced a society’s population will be. At the end of my talk the audience of around 200 people was momentarily silent and then up stood the vast majority of the women in the room and clapped. Not the men present, just the women.

What is FedEE?

The Federation of International Employers (FedEE) is a leading corporate membership organisation for multinational companies. It was founded in 1998, with financial assistance from the European Commission. Today it is an independent body with corporate members all around the globe. 

NDB President reports to BRICS leaders at 11th Summit in Brasilia, Brazil

NDB President reports to BRICS leaders at 11th Summit in Brasilia, Brazil

On November 14, 2019, Mr. K.V. Kamath, President of the New Development Bank reported to the Leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa during the 11th BRICS Summit in Brasilia, Brazil.

“Thus far, the NDB has approved 46 projects for USD 12.8 billion in our member countries. By the end of this year, we expect the approvals to reach about USD 15 billion. In 2020, we are targeting approvals of USD 8-10 billion,” said Mr. K.V. Kamath.

“We are measuring the impact of our work through our contributions to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals that our members have committed to. We are also supporting projects that address some of the core developmental needs in our member countries, as articulated in their development agendas,” said the NDB President.

NDB President reports to BRICS leaders at 11th Summit in Brasilia, Brazil

Mr. K.V. Kamath highlighted operations of the Bank in its member countries:

  • In Brazil, the NDB is supporting improved physical connectivity of remote areas to logistical hubs while simultaneously laying the infrastructure for enhanced digital connectivity.
  • In Russia, in addition to financing infrastructure that will conserve and improve accessibility to historic and cultural centers, the Bank is moving into new areas such as bringing digital technologies to the judicial system, expanding higher education and supporting railway sector.
  • In India, the NDB is investing in improving connectivity of rural areas to markets and opportunities, as well as in better management of water resources.
  • In China, the Bank is contributing to the rehabilitation and restoration of environmental assets that were adversely impacted during the phases of rapid growth and lending for innovative green technologies.
  • In South Africa, the NDB is assisting energy and water projects, two areas that are at the heart of the country’s economic and social challenges.

“NDB has thus far received USD 5.6 billion in capital, including advance payments of the fifth instalment by China and Russia. We expect to receive the balance USD 900 million of the fifth instalment from our other three members by January 2020,” stated the NDB President.

“The Bank’s Africa Regional Center in Johannesburg has proved that on-the-ground presence makes a big difference to our work. Our Brazil office is already staffed and ready to open and we await completion of necessary formalities. Preparations for our office in Moscow are at an advanced stage and we will open this office early next year. We will follow that up with our Delhi office in the first half of 2020,” added Mr. K.V. Kamath.

“Going forward, the Bank is capable of sustaining between USD 8-10 billion of annual lending. With the initial USD 10 billion of capital that has been provided to it by the founding members, by 2027, the Bank can achieve a total asset book of about USD 50 billion.”

“As and when the decision is taken to admit new members to the Bank, and capital from these new members is received, the Bank can grow further. Under this scenario, it can achieve a total asset book of about USD 90 billion by 2027,” projected the NDB President.

Background Information

The NDB was established by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to mobilize resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies and developing countries, complementing the existing efforts of multilateral and regional financial institutions for global growth and development. To fulfill its purpose, the NDB will support public or private projects through loans, guarantees, equity participation and other financial instruments. According to the NDB’s General Strategy, sustainable infrastructure development is at the core of the Bank’s operational strategy for 2017-2021. The NDB received AA+ long-term issuer credit ratings from S&P and Fitch and AAA foreign currency long-term issuer rating from Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR).

Read the full text of the President’s Report on the NDB website: https://www.ndb.int/president_desk/report-of-the-president-2019/ 

Triple Hit: Brexit, Election and Christmas impacting office space take up

Confidence of potential occupiers of office space has taken a triple hit in the run up to Christmas

The annual Christmas slowdown in office deals has come earlier in 2019 than ever, as a triple hit of Brexit worries, Election uncertainty and staff taking a long Christmas break has upset potential occupiers’ confidence according to Office Agents Offices.co.uk.

“We are seeing a very early slowdown in deals being done, and we are being told it’s because of three main reasons: Brexit, the General Election and the long 12-day Christmas holidays this year”, says Offices.co.uk Senior Broker Jonathan Ratcliffe.

Brexit is well reported, as is the General Election – but combined with an annual leave trick staff are using whereby using 5 days annual leave nets them 12 days off. The effect is a delay in bosses decision making process.

One potential deal for a large office space in Bank, City of London was kicked back 6 months as the occupier simply couldn’t get their head around how the economy might change in 2020. They are an international company, with offices in Berlin, Madrid and London and their European CEO simply cannot predict what will happen in the UK – he’s been forced to delay his office search until next summer.

“It seems to be a recurring theme – Brexit has dented confidence; the Election supercharges the effect and Christmas is slow anyway – we might as well finish for 2019 now and get the mince pies out” says Ratcliffe

Reports from regional cities such as Leeds, Manchester and Birmingham are that office space enquiries are drying up much earlier than previous years.

Jonathan Ratcliffe from Offices.co.uk adds: “Leeds was really busy until the news of the Election, then the phone stopped ringing”

How employees are using 5 days annual leave to net a 12 day Christmas Holiday: https://www.offices.co.uk/christmas-holiday-hack-get-a-festive-12-day-christmas-break-by-taking-just-5-days-off/

Spokesperson Jonathan Ratcliffe from Offices.co.uk is available for comment on 020 3151 3360 or by email jr@offices.co.uk

Offices.co.uk is a National Provider of Serviced Offices and Flexible Workspaces.

Website: https://www.offices.co.uk

Twitter: https://twitter.com/offices_co_uk

SMEs hoarding record levels of cash amid Brexit turmoil – and it’s costing them billions a year

  • SMEs now hold an estimated £333 billion in cash deposits – a record high
  • But SMEs are set to miss out on £3.7 billion in interest this year because their money is languishing in low-paying savings accounts
  • This may also be damaging to the UK economy as it relies heavily on the performance of SMEs, says Flagstone

UK small and medium-sized businesses are holding record levels of cash as uncertainty surrounding Brexit persists – and it is costing them billions of pounds a year, new analysis reveals.

In the last 12 months, SME’s cash reserves have increased by more than 3% to £333 billion – the highest level on record – according to analysis of UK Finance figures by the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) on behalf of Flagstone, the UK’s largest cash deposit platform.

Much of this growth has been from deposits into instant-access accounts. Indeed, nearly 58% of all SME cash reserves are now being held in instant-access accounts, suggesting that firms want quick access to their money.

However, by doing this firms are missing out on billions of pounds of interest as these accounts typically pay the lowest interest rates.

With SMEs currently holding £191 billion in instant-access accounts and receiving an average rate of 0.41 % [1], they are on track to earn £566 million in interest in the coming year, CEBR’s analysis found. However, if they were to switch to a market leading instant-access rate of 1.40% [2], they would earn £2.7 billion in total in the next year – £2.1 billion more than they are currently expected to earn.

Further, UK SMEs currently hold £141 billion in fixed-rate deposit accounts earning on average 0.86%, meaning they are expected to earn £1.2 billion in the next 12 months. But if SMEs instead switched to the market-leading 1.95% one-year fixed rate, they would collectively earn £2.8 billion in interest in the coming 12 months – £1.6 billion more than they would have otherwise.

It means, in total, firms are expected to miss out on £3.7 billion in interest in the next year because their money is languishing in low-rate savings accounts.

That extra £3.7 billion would be enough to fund for a year the salaries of more than 123,360 additional workers on the UK average annual salary of £29,588[3].

Separate research conducted by YouGov on behalf of Flagstone reveals why SMEs are reluctant to shop around for a better rate for their cash.

Almost four in ten (39%) of the 500 firms surveyed said the hassle of opening an account is the greatest barrier stopping them from moving their money followed by 34% of firms who said the perceived risks of depositing money with a challenger or non-high street bank was the biggest deterrent.

Andrew Thatcher, Co-Founder and Co-Managing Partner of Flagstone, said: “It’s clear that firms are worried about what effect Brexit will have on their business and are hording cash in case the waters become choppy. However, whilst this may be a sensible move, our study reveals that firms aren’t choosing the best home for their cash. Often, firms are getting sub-optimal rates of interest when they could be getting much higher returns on their cash by shopping around.

“The research shows that savings apathy doesn’t just affect individual savers, but also the nation’s businesses too. Each year SMEs are missing out on billions of pounds of interest because they’re failing to shop around for a better deposit rate for their cash reserves. Firms that forego this extra cash could be missing out on the chance to grow their business by hiring extra staff or investing in productivity improvements.”

“The solution a platform like Flagstone provides is that it not only consistently keeps business owners and financial directors in the path of the best rates, but it also removes the barriers to switching, providing a simple way to increase income and reduce risk. If you are an SME or charity with excess cash at bank it makes no sense not to at least consider a service such as Flagstone and choose from one of hundreds of deposit products at the touch of a button to earn more money.”

[1] All figures on current SME cash holdings and average interest rates are Bank of England data, analysed by the Cebr

[2] Correct as at 4 November 2019

[3] Employee earnings in the UK: 2018, released by ONS on 25 October 2018. Annual figure calculated by multiplying median full-time gross weekly earnings (£569) by 52

Flagstone

Flagstone is an FCA authorised and regulated fintech company (FCA reference numbers 676754 and 605504) located in London and founded in 2013. Flagstone’s online cash deposit platform enables companies, charities and individuals to earn more interest and reduce risk through diversification. Completion of a single application gives the client access to over 550 deposit accounts from 38 different banks and enables them to research and open accounts in just a matter of keystrokes. The platform puts clients in control of their cash, giving them access to market-leading and exclusive rates from a growing panel of UK banks, consolidated reporting and regular new rate alerts to ensure that their cash is working as hard as possible for them 24/7. For more information, see www.flagstoneim.com or watch a short film explaining what we do and how it benefits clients by clicking here.  

All of the UK banks on the Flagstone platform are authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the PRA. Deposits placed with any of these banks via the Flagstone platform are afforded exactly the same Financial Services Compensation Scheme protection (i.e. £85,000 per individual depositor per authorised institution) as if the client placed the deposit directly with the bank.

Pound boost as hung parliament and Corbyn risks reduce on Farage-Johnson pact

11 November 2019

The pound will receive a welcome boost after Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party will not be pitted against Conservatives in almost 320 seats in next month’s election, affirms the boss of one of the world’s largest independent financial organisations.

The upbeat message from Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group comes as the Brexit Party’s leader Nigel Farage will stand aside in all 317 seats won by the Conservatives in the 2017 general election, fighting only seats held by other parties in the 12 December general election.

Mr Green notes: “Nigel Farage has given the Prime Minister a massive boost in the election as he stands down candidates from his Brexit Party.

“In turn, this will give a welcome boost to the Brexit-battered pound, which has consistently been something of a Brexit bellwether.”

He continues: “The move reduces the likelihood of another hung parliament, which would have led to more parliamentary paralysis and more crippling delays on Brexit.  

“All of this would have generated yet more, intensified uncertainty – something financial markets loathe.  This is why the pound has jumped on the news of the informal Johnson-Farage pact.

“Looking ahead, a Conservative majority would give the government the enhanced ability to move on with the Brexit process. 

“Wealth, jobs and opportunity-generating businesses – both in the UK and internationally – have been crying out for certainty. There is the hope a majority government could lift the fog of Brexit that’s been hampering investment and confidence.

“Should a Conservative majority be returned next month, I believe that the pound will reach $1.35.”

Mr Green goes on to add: “The pound will also be given a boost as the agreement is a serious hammer blow for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party.

“His anti-business rhetoric, and high tax and low-profit policies would lead to considerable and sustained selling of the pound.”

Last week, the deVere CEO noted: “I believe we can realistically expect a Corbyn government would trigger an exodus of the country’s most successful and wealthiest individuals who contribute significantly both directly and indirectly to the British economy.”

Nigel Green concludes: “Sterling’s outlook will become increasingly bullish over the next few weeks if the Conservatives continue to do well in the polls in the run-up to the election.”

GDP growth at slowest for a decade

Could SME growth catalyse an economic surge?

Leading SME investment experts – IW Capital and the UKBAA – discusses the importance of supporting thesmall business economy.

It has been announced today that Britain’s economic growth rate has reached its lowest level in almost a decade, after the ONS announced that year-on-year growth fell to 1%. However, a narrowing trade deficit fueled by growing exports of both goods and services offered encouragement for firms trading outside the UK. What more can be done to ensure that the UK’s globally facing private sector will provide the growht and ambition to thrive and support a growing economy?
 
SMEs make up 99.9% of private sector businesses and so supporting entrepreneurs to start businesses as well as providing vital growth finance is clearly of the utmost importance to the overall health of the UK economy. Small firms also employ over 16million people in the UK and has recently grown at a faster rate than the overall job market.

Luke Davis, CEO of IW Capital, reacts to the news:

“The small business community and its success is as important to the economy as any change in Government in the near future. With an economic contribution of over £2trillion, the success of the UK economy as a whole may in future hinge on the prosperity of SMEs, start-ups and high-growth firms. There are a fantastic range of innovative, growing SMEs that we work with that are likely to drive our private sector forward in the coming years. And it certainly seems that private equity, through routes such as the Enterprise Investment Scheme, as well as other alternative finance options will be key to the business community in the future of a growing economy.

“As entrepreneurs and investors look to capitalise on new opportunities that are bound to exist in the next few years, growth finance will be key to making the most of that. The predicted growth of the economy should be marked as a statement of intent by investors looking to support small businesses that make up our fantastic SME arena and wider private sector economy.”

Jenny Tooth OBE – CEO of the UK Business Angels Association said:

“The SME sector is full of ambitious entrepreneurs looking to ignite economic growth in their respective regions within the UK. With SMEs making up 99.9% of all businesses in the UK, it is essential that they continue to deliver vital growth. With manufacturing output decreasing, we need to make sure that small businesses in other sectors are given the full confidence they need to continue to thrive.  Although we may be going through murky political waters, the business community of the UK must stand together. Investors, whether they be institutional or private, such as angel investing, have never been so important to the sustainability of British SMEs.”

GDP output holds up but comes in below forecast

The latest figures on GDP performance show a 1% year on year increase against a forecast of 1.1% and a quarterly increase of 0.3% against a forecast of 0.4%, although business investment is much better than forecast. 

Founder and CEO of REL Capital, Andy Scott, commented:

“The basket of economic performance indicators just published is a mixed bag but when viewed in context to a political dynamic that is more Carry On film than carry on as usual, the economy is holding up ok. GDP, arguably the most important measure of fiscal health, is still hanging on in there in positive territory. Kicking and screaming with it’s head just above the surface, for sure but still breathing nonetheless at a positive 1% up year on year and quarter to quarter.

In particular, construction output is better than the forecasters had expected by some way, as is overall business investment which, whilst flat in real terms, provides a further silver-lining versus expectation. Stiff upper lip and all that.” 

About Andy Scott

Founder and CEO of REL Capital, Andy Scott
Founder and CEO of REL Capital, Andy Scott

Andy Scott is the Maserati 100 winning entrepreneur and owner of nine businesses across the property development, transport and recruitment sectors, with a focus on the catering and construction sectors to name but a few.  

His specialism is buying distressed businesses and turning them around via REL Capital, his holding company. Consequently, his group now has revenues of over £30m annually.

From living on a boat during his uni years, before dropping out and building a successful business empire largely in the hotel trade, Andy lost everything in the 2008 crash but has since fought his way back to be one of the UK’s most successful and resilient businessmen.

Andy is a colourful character. A former nightclub doorman turned yacht owning tycoon, pilot and white-collar boxer who has never forgotten where he came from and continues to operate with the same core business values (and partners) as he did when he first started his journey.

He has appeared on TV and in the press as a business pundit many times including: 

BBC Radio 4’s The Bottom Line 

BBC Business Live

BBC’s CEO Secrets 

More about Andy’s story:  

The Times: When you’re down, I’ll take you out of administration

Evening Standard: Entrepreneurs: After weathering the blows, boxer Andy Scott is raising firms off the canvas

This is Money: ‘I built a property empire with a £5k windfall… and lost it all’

BBC: ‘I got wiped out, but I was determined to make it back’

The growing movement of people fuels demand for international tax advice

4 November 2019

The increasing global movement of people and businesses is driving the significant growing demand for international tax advice. 

The observations come from deVere Tax Consultancy, part of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations, which operates in more than 100 countries.

The world is currently experiencing the highest levels of movement on record.  

According to the International Organization of Migration, the leading inter-governmental agency in the field, approximately 258 million people – or one in every 30 – were living outside their country of origin in 2017.

That is both a record high – and a number that has beaten all expectations. Indeed, a 2003 projection anticipated that by 2050, there would be around 230 million based outside their birth nation. But the latest projection has been dramatically revised upwards – there will be more than 405 million living away from their country of birth by 2050.

James Green, divisional manager at deVere Group, observes: “We’ve noted a year-on-year increase in international tax advice enquiries of more than a third.  

“This can be attributed, we believe, to three key factors.

“First, is the increasing movement of people. Whether driven by geopolitical, work or lifestyle reasons, more and more individuals are on the move around the world.  

“In addition – and despite the rhetoric of some populist politicians – globalisation in the world of trade and commerce is here to stay and is, if anything, gaining momentum as it encourages economic growth, creates jobs, makes firms more competitive, and lowers prices for consumers.

“Second, since the global financial crisis both individuals and companies have become more financially literate and aware of the importance of specialist financial advice, especially when it comes to cross-border affairs.

“And third, the reporting and tax filing requirements are increasing in most jurisdictions.  For instance – and this is just one example – in the U.S. where the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, or FATCA, is almost universally recognised as being burdensome, onerous and complex.”

Director of deVere Tax Consultancy, Mitch Young, notes: “The enquiries are coming from both internationally-mobile individuals and firms who are seeking advice on compliant and up-to-date tax filing, residency issues, inheritance tax, self-assessment, property tax structuring and disclosures, national insurance contributions, trusts and wills.

“Due to this considerable surge in demand for our services we have recruited more senior tax consultants, account managers and in-house barrister intermediaries.

“We have also launched our first tax apprenticeship scheme to find and train the top tax talent of the future.  In addition, we’re in the process of building an international tax network to meet the needs and expectations of our clients.” 

James Green concludes: “The demand for international tax advice is set to grow further still as the world becomes increasingly globalised and as the cross-border regulatory landscapes continue to evolve – and at a faster pace.”