Category: Economics

Economics

Expert comment from Warwick Business School

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Warwick Business School

Commenting as Easyjet announced it would resume flights next month,

Professor Loizos Heracleous, an aviation industry expert at Warwick Business School, said:

“Airlines will face a number of challenges as they resume flights. For example, if governments require them to observe social distancing rules on planes, that would mean middle seats are left empty.

“This would reduce capacity and lead to an increase in ticket prices. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), prices would have to rise by 40-50 per cent, just for airlines to break even.

“The good news for airlines is that they will benefit from lower oil prices and research is already under way that may enable equipment to sniff out coronavirus before passengers board.

“Airlines have been forced to conserve cash to survive, cutting flights, reducing their workforce, and postponing capital investment. However, social habits including the urge to travel have not changed. Provided we find ways to control the virus, through testing, treatment or a vaccine, the industry should be back to pre-pandemic levels within two to three years.

“Aviation is too essential to wither. It is here to stay and the market system is resilient enough to ensure the industry thrives after this temporary setback.”

Economics

Pound could drop even further – to $1.18 – in June: deVere CEO

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

The pound – this month’s worst-performing major currency – could “easily drop to $1.18” at the end of June, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.

The warnings from deVere Group’s chief executive and founder Nigel Green come as it is revealed that the British currency shed almost 4% against the U.S. dollar in May and 3% against the euro.

Mr Green comments: “The pound is this year’s third-weakest major currency – just behind the New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone, which have done even worse.

“The pound has been battered since the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the ensuing years of political uncertainty, losing around 20% of its value since the referendum. 

“The Covid-19 crisis has been another hammer blow for sterling as it promoted a flight-to-safety and ramped-up the search for liquidity.  This situation is a win for the U.S. dollar and, in turn, a loss for the pound.”

He continues: “There are legitimate concerns that the pound has further to fall in the next few weeks.

“It could easily drop to $1.17-$1.18 by the end of June due to renewed and heightened fears of a negative shock due to a no-deal Brexit combined with the far-reaching economic fallout of the pandemic.”

Negotiations between the UK and the EU on their post-Brexit future relationship stalled on Friday with the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier saying the two sides risked reaching a “stalemate.”

The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly threatened to walk away from the talks if insufficient progress has been made by next month’s high-level negotiations. The UK has indicated the alternative of an “Australia-style” deal, a relationship where both sides trade on basic World Trade Organization terms, similar to a no-deal Brexit.

“An even weaker pound will help to reduce people’s purchasing power and a drop in UK living standards. Weaker sterling means imports are more expensive, with rising costs being passed on to consumers,” says Mr Green.
 
“The fall in the pound is good for exports some claim, but it must be remembered that around 50% of UK exports rely on imported components. These will become more expensive as the pound falls in value.
 
“A low pound is, of course, bad news for British expats, amongst others, who receive income or pensions in sterling.
 
“The country’s financial services sector – which represents 6% of all economic activity – will also be adversely affected because it is built on foreign investment that puts its faith in sterling being strong.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “The pound will remain volatile, and is likely to become weaker in the next month.
 
“As such, it can be expected that domestic and international investors in UK assets will be seeking the available international options available to them.”

Economics

Negative interest rates are coming, investors taking action: deVere CEO

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Negative interest rates are coming and investors will now be looking to bolster their portfolios to ‘get ahead of the curve and build wealth’, says the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.

deVere Group’s Nigel Green is speaking out after rate options, which gauge monetary policy forecasts, implied on Monday a 23% likelihood that the key federal funds rate will drop below zero by the end of 2020, according to BofA Securities data.

It’s not just the U.S., the world’s largest economy, which is moving towards this scenario.

On Tuesday, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England also suggested that the UK may be headed toward negative interest rates.

Mr Green comments: “A new global era of negative interest rates would have been unimaginable even a few months ago.  But this has now changed due to the coronavirus.

“As central banks around the world grapple to control the economic impact, it can be reasonably expected that more and more of them will take a dramatic change of policy course and take rates to below zero – like their peers in Europe and Japan.”

He continues: “There is legitimate debate about the efficacy of negative interest rates on boosting economies. 

“They could turn out to be a masterclass in the law of unintended consequences as they could be viewed by consumers and investors that the underlying economies are in a perilous position and, as a result, prompt a drop in consumer and investor demand.”

Whilst the debate on whether negative interest rates help the ‘real economy’ or not will continue, there is no doubt that they help boost financial asset prices.
 
“With this firmly in their minds, market-wise investors will know be looking to bolster their portfolios before the next round of cuts and the likely subsequent price increase. They are taking advantage of the lower entry points now before the next major rally,” notes Nigel Green.
 
He goes on to add: “In addition, those with savings in the bank are already getting no return thanks to the ultra-low interest rates.  Negative rates will offer them more reason to increase their exposure to equities, for example.”
 
The deVere CEO concludes: “The question mark remains on whether cutting rates from their already low levels will solve the issues created by the coronavirus outbreak.
 
“I believe, due to the economic situation and the hints from central banks, that there are more rate cuts on their way as they know it’s not sustainable to just keep printing money.

“This ‘direction of travel’ will push up financial asset prices and, as such, many investors are now looking to get ahead of the curve and build wealth.”

Economics

Are rallying stock markets out of step with economic reality?

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Buoyant stock markets are not necessarily ignoring alarming economic data, rather they are reflecting the post-pandemic era, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.

The observation from deVere Group chief executive and founder Nigel Green comes as official figures on Friday revealed that more than 20 million people in the U.S. lost their jobs in April and the unemployment rate more than trebled.

Mr Green comments: “The staggering U.S. unemployment numbers wipe out a decade’s worth of job gains. There’s been nothing like this since the Great Depression.

“Yet U.S. stock futures climbed higher as global markets rose on Friday.  This is highly unusual.”

He continues: “There are two things happening simultaneously here.

“First, a weak first half of 2020 has already been priced-in. 

“As have the risks of a potential second wave – but the concerns of this are being largely contained as it is not such a ‘bolt out of the blue’.

“It is extreme uncertainty, the likes of which we saw at the peak of the pandemic, that typically upsets markets.

“Whether they are correct in their assessment remains to be seen, but markets are looking towards the second half of the year.  They appear to believe that there is likely to be a steady economic recovery as key advances are made in coronavirus treatments, as central banks continue to implement and further bolster historic stimulus packages, and as lockdown restrictions around the world are eased to revive activity.”

He goes on to add: “Second, and perhaps more importantly, stock markets are reflecting what is going on in the economy right now and what it’ll look like post-pandemic.

“A closer look at the markets reveals that, of course, not all stocks and sectors are rising equally. They are being driven up across the board by the ‘winners’ of this new era including tech, biotech, home entertainment and established online retailers, amongst others.

“We can assume that these, and other stock market ‘winners’, are showing us what the future economy looks like.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “The optimistic stock markets seem at odds with the grim economic data.  They may be being overly confident, even complacent.

“But it could also be the case that they are giving us clear signals for the current and future shape of the economy, in which there are and will be distinct winners and losers. 

“A good fund manager will help investors seek out the opportunities and mitigate potential risks as and when they are presented to generate and build their wealth.”

Economics

Towards economic recovery: a simple, quick and targeted way for authorities to support those most in need

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

As political leaders across Europe are contemplating how to best prepare the restart of our economies, European Fintechs Loyaltek and Paynovate launch the Unity Card (unitycard.eu): an initiative enabling authorities to financially support certain segments of the population, such as the most underprivileged, but also to specifically target local retailers and merchants who’ve had to close their businesses. 

The special payment card, which will exceptionally be free to municipalities as the first, local level of power, can be delivered anywhere on the Old Continent in as fast as 2-4 weeks and avoids cumbersome logistics and administration, allowing for effective, ultra-targeted, monitorable and evolutive socio-economic measures on the road to economic recovery.

Brussel, 24 april 2020. As the Corona curves are slowly but surely starting to flatten, the focus is gradually shifting towards the next challenge: relaunching the economy. Whilst national governments and international institutions across Europe and the world are announcing unprecedented crisis measures, it remains to be seen if these will be enough, and especially, whether the aid can be deployed quickly enough to save those in need today. Therefore, decisive action needs to be taken today rather than tomorrow.

With a view to this, European FinTech pioneers and veterans Loyaltek and Paynovate are teaming up in a unique proposal to political leaders, with the aim of offering citizens much needed and rapid financial support by means of the Unity Card. As innovative as it is useful, this debit card can be limited for use in a certain geographical area (e.g. one municipality) as well as a certain types of predetermined shops or businesses, in this case those that have been forced to close during the current crisis: hotels, restaurants, bars, hairdressers, DIY-stores, clothes stores… As such, it is the perfect instrument to stimulate the local economy and prevent the money disappearing to foreign e-commerce websites, being sent to family abroad, or saved.

“Whether it’s to support merchants who have had to close their business or to help a mother feed her children: our leaders, from municipal to national level, are looking for ways to mitigate the effects of the lockdown and prepare for a return to normal life and economic recovery,” explains Robert Masse, founder and CEO of Loyaltek and expert in the field of card payments. “But time is running out, and the question arises as to how to allocate these various resources as quickly and efficiently as possible, while at the same time avoiding any risks of fraud and ensuring that public money serves its intended purpose, to the extent of creating a win-win situation and benefiting society as a whole.”

The Unity Card has a maximum value of €250 and works just like a regular debit card on payment terminals. The validity period can be adapted in function of the needs and intended support. Users can check the remaining value thanks to a QR code on the back, while an extranet allows the issuing authority to monitor, analyse, manage and even adjust the way its cards are being used, all in real-time. And thus, once again in this crisis, it’s new technologies that are offering relief in a situation which at first seemed insoluble.

“In a spirit of social commitment, our R&D teams wanted to make themselves useful against the horrors of the Corona virus. Ultimately, it’s the pragmatism and the potential of this solution which convinced us to set up the necessary partnerships to deploy it throughout Europe,” concludes Robert Masse. “The name, which of course stands for solidarity, came naturally, and we have decided to offer the first 5,000 cards to each of the municipalities that want to work with it, given that they’re the ones closest to the situation on the ground. Implementation costs are kept to a minimum and amount to a fraction of the usual costs of similar ‘traditional’ measures. Moreover, we do not take any margin on the transactions.”

The solution proposed by Loyaltek and Paynovate has proven its worth before in Germany at the time of the migration crisis, when authorities distributed thousands of similar cards to manage the allowances of Syrian refugees, allowing them to provide in their most basic needs by purchasing from local merchants.

The appearance of the Unity Card can be personalised if necessary. It is distributed either directly to the beneficiaries or by group transmission to the competent authority, which can then further distribute it. The payments made by citizens with the card are managed together with the rest of the merchants’ payment traffic, while cardholder support is ensured by Loyaltek or the ‘customer’ himself, i.e. the issuing authority.

Loyaltek NV is a European leader in limited range cards and manages numerous gift card and professional expense cards programmes in 14 countries. Its clients include Sodexo, Ingenico, Total and a great number of major commercial real estate players. They call on Loyaltek’s expertise for specific and technically advanced projects.

Paynovate NV is one of the six Belgian issuers of electronic money, regulated by the National Bank of Belgium and authorised to issue payment instruments in all European countries. Paynovate is also a principal member of Visa and Bancontact.

Economics

Three investment reasons to be cheerful amid the economic upheaval

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Right now the world is facing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and many people across the world are going through extremely hard times.

But we also need to try and focus on the compelling positives there are now to create, build and safeguard money to reach our financial goals for ourselves and our loved ones.

The message from Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations comes as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 per cent. This is a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, clearly a significant downward revision within a very short time period. 

Nigel Green comments: “The world has changed considerably in the first quarter of 2020. Coronavirus has sparked a truly global crisis like no other, with a horrifyingly high and tragic number of human lives lost. 

“It has also been a monstrous source of economic upheaval and uncertainty for households, businesses and governments.

“But in these most unusual of times, it’s essential to seek the positives and there are increasingly significant reasons within the market to be cheerful. 

“Looking beyond the gloom, many investors are using these to create, build and safeguard their money right now.”

He continues: “I believe that there are three main investment reasons to be cheerful.

“First, the market is cheap by historic standards and this represents a major, perhaps once-in-a-generation chance to buy top quality equities at lower prices to bolster investment portfolios.  History shows that stock markets always go up over time.

“Second the worldwide loosening of monetary and fiscal policies.  This will serve as a bridge for economies until the crisis passes and will go a long way to boost both supply and demand across all sectors. In turn, this will lead to more investment, increased confidence, and longer-term job and wealth creation.

“Third, pent-up demand will hit the global economy when lockdowns are lifted. Many people have not lost their jobs or suffered reduced incomes and have saved money during the lockdown. We can expect demand in sectors such as autos, travel, hospitality and entertainment to be strong.”

Whilst some investors appear to have not only locked down themselves, but also their financial strategies, increasingly both retail and institutional investors are “rightly looking beyond only the dark picture,” says Mr Green.

The deVere CEO concludes. “No economy – developed or emerging – has been spared this downturn, the worst since The Great Depression. The uncertain economic landscape is impacting on people’s lives and livelihoods.

“However, I also would urge investors to mitigate risks to their money and help create and grow wealth by looking towards the undeniable and compelling positive areas amid this tragic and unprecedented global situation.” 

Economics

Coronavirus Research Index Reveals which Countries Put the most Effort in COVID-19 Research

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Finbold.com has launched the Coronavirus Research Index (CRI) to identify countries that are putting in the most effort in finding ways to manage the COVID-19 disease.

The index ranks the countries based on the number of active medical coronavirus studies that show which countries are actually executing the most research related to COVID-19 to understand the virus to find the effective means of managing the disease. According to the Index, China, the United States, and France are the top three countries leading in the number of active studies related to coronavirus.

China leads in studying coronavirus

The CRI shows that China has 60 active studies, with the United States having 49 ongoing studies. On the other hand, France has 26 active studies. Idas Keb, a co-founder at Finbold, on the findings commented:

“Interestingly, the index also reveals that while there is some correlation between countries that have the most COVID-19 cases and the number of medical studies, the majority of the countries are still far behind on coronavirus research. For example, Spain, which is second by the number of confirmed coronavirus cases, is not within the top 5 countries in the research index.”

The report features studies that are labeled as ‘Active’ on the ClinicalTrials.gov database. The studies have a different status like Recruiting, Not yet recruiting, Active not recruiting and Enrolling by invitation.

The research index also highlights the study title, the status of the study, the institutions carrying out the study and the interventions placed into managing the condition.

Currently, the Finbold.com Coronavirus Research Index identifies 39 countries with ongoing studies on COVID-19. All listed countries have confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus.

You can find the research and try out the tool here: https://finbold.com/coronavirus-research-index/  

Business

Half of UK & US firms predict a recession in 2020 and a third predict a global recession

Author ByCFI.co Blogger
  • Just under half of firms in the UK (46%) and US (45%) predict their country will go into recession in 2020, according to research by trade finance provider Stenn
  • The poll of over 700 senior executives at medium-large sized businesses across the UK, US and China, also revealed that well over a third (37%) of UK firms and one in three (35%) US firms expect to see a global recession or international global crisis in 2020
  • In the UK, a third (33%) of firms expect the economy to shrink in 2020, with well over a tenth (14%) expecting it to contract by 1-3%
    • A further 6% expect the UK economy to stay flat with no growth
  • In the US, almost one in five (16%) expect the economy to shrink in 2020, most likely by 1-3% (7%)
    • In addition, 6% also expect it to stay flat with no growth. 

Dr. Kerstin Braun, President of Stenn Group, commented: “2019 was weaker than expected and the stakes are only higher for 2020. Governments around the world are having to act forcefully to prevent the economic hit from Covid-19 deepening, taking a coordinated approach and opening the liquidity pipe for both fiscal and monetary support.

While a low interest rate provides an important cut in borrowing costs for businesses and consumers at this delicate moment, the coronavirus outbreak will be a real test of the health of the UK and US economies. Lowering rates alone isn’t enough to be effective in offsetting the economic impact of Covid-19. We already know the Chinese economy is going to be hit in the first and second quarter.

“For us, the plunge in oil coupled with the economic damage of Covid-19 marked the beginning of a global recession. Our research showed that at the beginning of the year, half of UK and US businesses predicted a recession and a third predicted an international global crisis, and just three months into 2020 and we’re starting to see this play out.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted by Atomik Research among 706 senior decision makers at medium-large sized businesses, across the UK, US, and Chinese markets. The research fieldwork took place on the 18th – 28th November 2019. Atomik Research is an independent creative market research agency that employs MRS-certified researchers and abides to MRS code.

About Stenn

Stenn International Ltd. is a UK-based, non-bank trade finance provider specialising in cross-border trade. Stenn’s trade finance solutions are comprehensive and can be combined to cover the entire supply chain from purchase order to delivery of goods. Innovative practices allow Stenn to finance in sectors and geographic regions currently underserved in global trade. The company operates globally with offices in Buenos Aires, Los Angeles, Dallas, New York, Miami, London, Amsterdam, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Mumbai, Chennai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai and Qingdao.

Learn more at https://stenn.com or follow Twitter, LinkedIn and Facebook.

Economics

Global sell-off could be seen by investors as best buying opportunity in a decade

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

The worst global market sell-off since the 2008 crash will become an important buying-opportunity for investors, affirms the chief executive of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and services organisations.

The prediction by Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, comes after equities lost a tenth of their value this week as investors piled into havens on growing concerns the coronavirus outbreak will hit the world economy and impact corporate profits.

Mr Green notes: “Until this week, the markets had largely shrugged off the impact of the outbreak of coronavirus.  We warned about complacency leaving many wide-open to nasty surprises.

“This has now changed. Investors have done a ‘one eighty’ – from a muted overly confident reaction to the serious and far-reaching global issue of coronavirus to running like headless chickens. 

“Both extremes are worrying and could potentially wreak havoc on investors’ returns.”

He continues: “However, the worst global market sell-off since the 2008 crash will almost certainly become an important buying-opportunity for many investors. 

“With markets on the brink of correction territory, panic-selling, mis-pricing of high quality equities, and lower entry points, this could turn out to be one of the key buying opportunities in the last 10 years.

“Some of the most successful investors will embrace volatility to create, maximise and protect their wealth.

“As ever in times of increased turbulence, there will be winners and losers. A professional fund manager will help investors take advantage of the opportunities that volatility presents and mitigate potential risks.

Earlier this week, Mr Green noted: “In the current volatile environment, investors – including myself – will be revising their portfolios and drip-feeding new money into the market to take advantage of the opportunities whilst reducing risk at the same time.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Global investors should not be spooked by the return of volatility on stock markets but, where possible use it to their financial advantage.  

“Of course, no–one knows for sure what will happen in the immediate future but, as stock markets typically rise over a longer-term period, now is the time to capitalise on the more favourable prices of decent stocks.

“It can be expected that in coming days, serious investors will be bargain-hunting.”

Economics

Boris Johnson must release the potential of property post-Brexit

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

The past few months have seen a huge amount of political change. In December 2019, for example, the Conservative Party won their largest Parliamentary majority since 1987, while January of this year featured the passing of the EU Withdrawal Bill through parliament. With the recent cabinet reshuffle, and Sajid Javid’s resignation as Chancellor, February has also proven to be an eventful month.

Boris Johnson must release the potential of property post-Brexit
CEO and co-founder of FJP Investment: Jamie Johnson

However, in the period since the election, there has been a growing sense that we have returned to some semblance of normality. The three years after the referendum were turbulent and hostile, with nail-biting parliamentary votes and overheated political discourse becoming par for the course. With no election likely until the middle of this decade, and with the Government in a relatively strong position, this stress is seeming to subside. Whatever your political disposition, this is no doubt a good thing for businesses and investors.

Data suggests that the UK stock market grew by an impressive £33 billion in the immediate aftermath of the general election. The effects of the so-called Boris bounce have likely been overstated, but it has hasn’t been as short-lived as some had predicted. Property also saw an uptick; according to Zoopla’s UK Cities Price Index, demand for UK property rose at the fastest rate since 2017. Similarly, according to Nationwide, prices in January were at a 14-month high. This is especially good news in light of modest house price growth in recent years as a result of Brexit uncertainty.

Looking forward, then, the property market could be set for renewed growth.

What can the Government do to propel the property market forward?

As mentioned, following through on their Brexit promises is crucial. Whether you voted remain or leave, 2019’s missed deadlines created profound uncertainty amongst business leaders. Therefore, it’s not just about the completion of the process, but also about making sure negotiations go smoothly and businesses are being made aware of the progress made.

The EU Withdrawal Bill passing through parliament was an important first step. Indeed, it showed that this majority has allowed Boris Johnson to get on with Brexit in a way his predecessors found difficult. But the Government’s ability to tick all the other boxes during the transition period is unproven. There is still a long way to go in terms of reassuring the property market that Brexit is in safe hands and that investing can continue without concern.

Furthermore, the Government must also deliver on its previously stated aims for policy in the property space. The domestic market, for example, is supportive of a new stamp duty surcharge on international buyers of UK property — an approach the Conservative Party has previously supported. According to a recent poll conducted by FJP Investment, as many as 70% of UK property investors are in favour of such a move.

There are also other areas that the Government should follow through on to help realise the full potential of UK property. Fighting the housing crisis, for example, will require coordinated policy to encourage construction, investment, and stakeholder engagement. On that last point, the Conservative Party has previously suggested consulting local people on the design of new-build developments. Doing so would hugely increase the attractiveness of such developments, so it’s little wonder that 68% of investors surveyed by FJP Investment supported the policy.

The Government must also commit the necessary resources to construction if it is to tackle the central challenge to UK property: insufficient supply. More homes being built will almost certainly bring prices down and make rents more affordable, but a national building revolution, of sorts, may be required.

A recent promise of £100 billion for construction over the next five years is a step in the right direction, while Boris Johnson’s promise of a million new homes over the same period shows ambition for UK property. But governments of all stripes have set, and missed, huge housebuilding aims, and property leaders are tired of empty promises. Now is the time for investment and reform to fulfil that huge target.

Looking forward, UK property appears to be in a strong position. With so much latent demand, and with prices rising, 2020 is likely to be more positive than last year. Further, with Brexit likely to be completed, the entire market may be set for an upturn. However, this can only happen with the right government support and policy implementation — indeed, without it, the housing crisis will not be resolved. Thankfully, the Government’s aims broadly align with property investors’, meaning they likely have the right priorities to help property return to form.

Jamie Johnson is the CEO and co-founder of FJP Investment