No-deal Brexit fears trigger investors to seek international options

Growing fears of a no-deal Brexit will prompt an increasing number of British and international investors to move their financial assets overseas out of the UK, believes the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.
 
The observation from Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of deVere Group, which has $12bn under advisement, comes as the UK formally rejects an extension to the Brexit transition period – raising the risk of a no-deal departure at the end of the year.
 
Mr Green notes: “Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK is suffering its deepest recession in 300 years. Nevertheless, the government is sticking with its hard Brexit plans.

“Concerns over the fallout from a no-deal Brexit will prompt an increasing number of British and international investors to move their financial assets overseas out of the UK.”

He continues: “Should the UK leave with no-deal, the already weak pound – which is one of the world’s worst-performing currencies this year – is likely to remain weak for several years to come until Britain and the EU readjust. It has already shed about 20% of its value since the EU referendum in 2016.

“A low pound can help to reduce people’s purchasing power and lead to a drop in UK living standards. Weaker sterling means imports are more expensive, with rising costs being passed on to consumers.”

The drop in sterling is good for UK exports some insist, however around half of the country’s exports rely on imported components. “These will become more expensive as the pound falls in value,” noted Mr Green.

“In addition, a weaker pound is, of course, bad news for British expats, amongst others, who receive income or pensions in sterling and as Brits looking to travel overseas,” he added.
 
The deVere CEO goes on to say: “Britain appears to be sleepwalking towards an economic blackhole.
 
“People are already becoming increasingly nervous about this situation.  Many will, inevitably and quite sensibly be looking to build and protect their wealth by moving assets overseas through various established international financial solutions.
 
“The pace of this trend is likely to increase over the next few months as the issues look set to ramp-up.”

Boris Johnson must release the potential of property post-Brexit

The past few months have seen a huge amount of political change. In December 2019, for example, the Conservative Party won their largest Parliamentary majority since 1987, while January of this year featured the passing of the EU Withdrawal Bill through parliament. With the recent cabinet reshuffle, and Sajid Javid’s resignation as Chancellor, February has also proven to be an eventful month.

Boris Johnson must release the potential of property post-Brexit
CEO and co-founder of FJP Investment: Jamie Johnson

However, in the period since the election, there has been a growing sense that we have returned to some semblance of normality. The three years after the referendum were turbulent and hostile, with nail-biting parliamentary votes and overheated political discourse becoming par for the course. With no election likely until the middle of this decade, and with the Government in a relatively strong position, this stress is seeming to subside. Whatever your political disposition, this is no doubt a good thing for businesses and investors.

Data suggests that the UK stock market grew by an impressive £33 billion in the immediate aftermath of the general election. The effects of the so-called Boris bounce have likely been overstated, but it has hasn’t been as short-lived as some had predicted. Property also saw an uptick; according to Zoopla’s UK Cities Price Index, demand for UK property rose at the fastest rate since 2017. Similarly, according to Nationwide, prices in January were at a 14-month high. This is especially good news in light of modest house price growth in recent years as a result of Brexit uncertainty.

Looking forward, then, the property market could be set for renewed growth.

What can the Government do to propel the property market forward?

As mentioned, following through on their Brexit promises is crucial. Whether you voted remain or leave, 2019’s missed deadlines created profound uncertainty amongst business leaders. Therefore, it’s not just about the completion of the process, but also about making sure negotiations go smoothly and businesses are being made aware of the progress made.

The EU Withdrawal Bill passing through parliament was an important first step. Indeed, it showed that this majority has allowed Boris Johnson to get on with Brexit in a way his predecessors found difficult. But the Government’s ability to tick all the other boxes during the transition period is unproven. There is still a long way to go in terms of reassuring the property market that Brexit is in safe hands and that investing can continue without concern.

Furthermore, the Government must also deliver on its previously stated aims for policy in the property space. The domestic market, for example, is supportive of a new stamp duty surcharge on international buyers of UK property — an approach the Conservative Party has previously supported. According to a recent poll conducted by FJP Investment, as many as 70% of UK property investors are in favour of such a move.

There are also other areas that the Government should follow through on to help realise the full potential of UK property. Fighting the housing crisis, for example, will require coordinated policy to encourage construction, investment, and stakeholder engagement. On that last point, the Conservative Party has previously suggested consulting local people on the design of new-build developments. Doing so would hugely increase the attractiveness of such developments, so it’s little wonder that 68% of investors surveyed by FJP Investment supported the policy.

The Government must also commit the necessary resources to construction if it is to tackle the central challenge to UK property: insufficient supply. More homes being built will almost certainly bring prices down and make rents more affordable, but a national building revolution, of sorts, may be required.

A recent promise of £100 billion for construction over the next five years is a step in the right direction, while Boris Johnson’s promise of a million new homes over the same period shows ambition for UK property. But governments of all stripes have set, and missed, huge housebuilding aims, and property leaders are tired of empty promises. Now is the time for investment and reform to fulfil that huge target.

Looking forward, UK property appears to be in a strong position. With so much latent demand, and with prices rising, 2020 is likely to be more positive than last year. Further, with Brexit likely to be completed, the entire market may be set for an upturn. However, this can only happen with the right government support and policy implementation — indeed, without it, the housing crisis will not be resolved. Thankfully, the Government’s aims broadly align with property investors’, meaning they likely have the right priorities to help property return to form.

Jamie Johnson is the CEO and co-founder of FJP Investment

Three reasons why Corbyn’s Labour manifesto will bring economic chaos

Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party’s radical Marxist manifesto will bring far-reaching economic chaos for Brexit-battered Britain, affirms the boss of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.

The founder and CEO of deVere Group, Nigel Green, is speaking out as the Labour leader unveils his party’s manifesto on Thursday ahead of next month’s general election.

Mr Green says: “Labour’s Marxist manifesto is the most radical and dangerous in decades.

“It would bring far-reaching economic chaos for a Brexit-battered Britain already on the brink.

“Corbyn and McDonnell’s agenda would create a nightmarish scenario that would hit those very people the most that it is proclaiming to try and support and protect.”

He continues: “There are three fundamental reasons why the Corbyn-led Labour manifesto would damage the UK economy.

“First, it would drive down already stagnate business investment in the UK. 

“The mammoth nationalisation programme will leave companies thinking ‘who’s next?’ Plus, the snatching of 10 per cent of the shares in every big company and a significant increase in trade union power, including a return to collective bargaining, will leave UK and international investors justifiably concerned that their investments will not be safe under Labour.

“This will seriously erode any attempts to generate long-term, sustainable economic growth.”

Mr Green goes on to say: “Second, it would trigger an exodus of some of the most successful and wealthiest individuals.

“This would likely be due to concerns regarding Labour’s stance on inheritance tax, income tax, stamp duty and capital gains tax, potentially even capital controls, and the slashing of pensions tax relief.

“Typically, these people have the resources to move to safe lower tax jurisdictions if the tax burden in Britain becomes too great. 

“Should these largely job and wealth-creating, tax-paying individuals quit Britain, the government’s finances will suffer significantly because they contribute a disproportionately large amount to the state’s coffers. Indeed, they prop-up the system.

“And third, a renegotiation of the Brexit deal, which would be put to a second referendum, would create many more months of uncertainty for businesses.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Labour’s economic agenda is a risky gamble. Its potential for serious adverse consequences is massive. 

“And whilst the radical plans are already far-reaching, this might be just the beginning, with more misguided policies to come.”

Could this be the SME election? Small businesses employ 16million – over a third of the electorate

SME experts – IW Capital and the UKBAA – discuss the importance of SME success to the next Government

Today will see the three main party leaders set out their plans to secure the support of the UK’s business leaders at the CBI conference. Boris Johnson is set to make the case for getting Brexit done, while Jo Swinson is to claim that the Lib Dems are the “natural party of business”. Labour is to focus on apprenticeships and training for the business community.

When setting out their stall in business policy, one area that is set to have a huge impact is the support promised for small and medium enterprises across the UK. The SME community employs 16.6million of the roughly 45million eligible voters in the UK and contributes £2.2trillion (52%) to the economy. If the next Government can make it clear that they are the party to help this sector of business to grow and thrive they could see significant support from one of the biggest sections of voters to exist in the UK.

Luke Davis – CEO of SME investment house IW Capital says:

“The importance of the SME sector is hard to overstate, and in the context of the upcoming election will be hugely important to the future economy. With over a third of the electorate employed by small businesses this could really be a swing vote of society – if this section of the workforce feels more confident in their job security and business growth with one party, it will almost undoubtedly affect voting decisions.

“For SMEs to feel confident in their capacity to grow, employ more people and expand they need to trust that the incoming Government is going to look after them and deliver security. The range of innovative and agile firms in the space currently is reflective of the entrepreneurial spirit of the UK which if fostered correctly could kick-start the wider economy into a period of growth.”

Jenny Tooth, CEO of the UK Business Angels Association, has commented:

“Not only is it the employees of SMEs that are keeping a keen eye on this election, but also the investors involved within the SME arena. With Britain’s impending exit from the European Union, the loss of the Jeremie fund and Horizon 2020 are bound to leave regional SMEs proactively seeking private investment more fervently. However, the mindset of investors could change post-Brexit. Investors will be looking for greater longevity when assessing the potential of a business, and will now look to how scalable businesses are in terms of their international reach. The forthcoming election and the pledges that the parties sell to businesses needs to reassure investors that the environment they delve into is a sustainable one.”

Brexit Backdoor Bonanza

The grim truth about Brexit deal III worked out between the current UK government and the EU this Autumn is that in attempting to remove the Irish backstop there will be established a huge facility for smuggling goods into, and through, the European Union – partially or totally tariff free.

FedEE

The new Protocol has found a form of words that both allows Northern Ireland to remain in the UK, but also have an open border with the Irish Republic. To ostensibly avoid smuggling, Article 5 sets out a process whereby types of goods can be identified as being at “risk of subsequently being moved into the [European] Union”. But there will also be a general exclusion clause if goods are not processed in Northern Ireland – although they can be relabelled.

The cross references and double negatives in the Protocol are clearly designed to confuse the reader, but the essence of this replacement for the former “backstop” is that with a long open border there will, in practice, be virtually no barrier to “badge engineering” and the smuggling of goods into the EU (ie: the South) having imported goods to the North via any new trade agreement, or free trade concession the UK decides to introduce.

Of course, there will also be the option of exporting via Northern Ireland (and a hop across the border) goods that have been made in Great Britain, to be reshipped from Dublin to non-EU countries with which the EU has tariff-free trade and the UK does not. 

Such a backdoor trade will, no doubt, help revive the established mafia in the province – the IRA. This could, in turn, undermine legitimate trade within the EU and generate a thriving grey economy to the cost of many multinationals operating legitimately there.

According to Robin Chater, Secretary-General of the Federation of International Employers (FedEE), “The fact that no watertight agreement can be reached on a Brexit deal is because a deep incompetence permeates the UK political system. It is equally a sad fact that the British people are blinded to the tragic mistake that is Brexit by their preoccupation with a hatred for eastern European nationals – who have contributed so much to the UK economy over the last 15 years. Such incompetence and xenophobia makes me deeply ashamed to be British.

For further information please contact Eustace Fernsby at the FedEE Press Office on press@fedee.com and 0044 203 608 4412.

What is FedEE?

The Federation of International Employers (FedEE) is a leading corporate membership organisation for multinational companies. It was founded in 1998, with financial assistance from the European Commission. Today it is an independent body with corporate members all around the globe. 

SMEs hoarding record levels of cash amid Brexit turmoil – and it’s costing them billions a year

  • SMEs now hold an estimated £333 billion in cash deposits – a record high
  • But SMEs are set to miss out on £3.7 billion in interest this year because their money is languishing in low-paying savings accounts
  • This may also be damaging to the UK economy as it relies heavily on the performance of SMEs, says Flagstone

UK small and medium-sized businesses are holding record levels of cash as uncertainty surrounding Brexit persists – and it is costing them billions of pounds a year, new analysis reveals.

In the last 12 months, SME’s cash reserves have increased by more than 3% to £333 billion – the highest level on record – according to analysis of UK Finance figures by the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) on behalf of Flagstone, the UK’s largest cash deposit platform.

Much of this growth has been from deposits into instant-access accounts. Indeed, nearly 58% of all SME cash reserves are now being held in instant-access accounts, suggesting that firms want quick access to their money.

However, by doing this firms are missing out on billions of pounds of interest as these accounts typically pay the lowest interest rates.

With SMEs currently holding £191 billion in instant-access accounts and receiving an average rate of 0.41 % [1], they are on track to earn £566 million in interest in the coming year, CEBR’s analysis found. However, if they were to switch to a market leading instant-access rate of 1.40% [2], they would earn £2.7 billion in total in the next year – £2.1 billion more than they are currently expected to earn.

Further, UK SMEs currently hold £141 billion in fixed-rate deposit accounts earning on average 0.86%, meaning they are expected to earn £1.2 billion in the next 12 months. But if SMEs instead switched to the market-leading 1.95% one-year fixed rate, they would collectively earn £2.8 billion in interest in the coming 12 months – £1.6 billion more than they would have otherwise.

It means, in total, firms are expected to miss out on £3.7 billion in interest in the next year because their money is languishing in low-rate savings accounts.

That extra £3.7 billion would be enough to fund for a year the salaries of more than 123,360 additional workers on the UK average annual salary of £29,588[3].

Separate research conducted by YouGov on behalf of Flagstone reveals why SMEs are reluctant to shop around for a better rate for their cash.

Almost four in ten (39%) of the 500 firms surveyed said the hassle of opening an account is the greatest barrier stopping them from moving their money followed by 34% of firms who said the perceived risks of depositing money with a challenger or non-high street bank was the biggest deterrent.

Andrew Thatcher, Co-Founder and Co-Managing Partner of Flagstone, said: “It’s clear that firms are worried about what effect Brexit will have on their business and are hording cash in case the waters become choppy. However, whilst this may be a sensible move, our study reveals that firms aren’t choosing the best home for their cash. Often, firms are getting sub-optimal rates of interest when they could be getting much higher returns on their cash by shopping around.

“The research shows that savings apathy doesn’t just affect individual savers, but also the nation’s businesses too. Each year SMEs are missing out on billions of pounds of interest because they’re failing to shop around for a better deposit rate for their cash reserves. Firms that forego this extra cash could be missing out on the chance to grow their business by hiring extra staff or investing in productivity improvements.”

“The solution a platform like Flagstone provides is that it not only consistently keeps business owners and financial directors in the path of the best rates, but it also removes the barriers to switching, providing a simple way to increase income and reduce risk. If you are an SME or charity with excess cash at bank it makes no sense not to at least consider a service such as Flagstone and choose from one of hundreds of deposit products at the touch of a button to earn more money.”

[1] All figures on current SME cash holdings and average interest rates are Bank of England data, analysed by the Cebr

[2] Correct as at 4 November 2019

[3] Employee earnings in the UK: 2018, released by ONS on 25 October 2018. Annual figure calculated by multiplying median full-time gross weekly earnings (£569) by 52

Flagstone

Flagstone is an FCA authorised and regulated fintech company (FCA reference numbers 676754 and 605504) located in London and founded in 2013. Flagstone’s online cash deposit platform enables companies, charities and individuals to earn more interest and reduce risk through diversification. Completion of a single application gives the client access to over 550 deposit accounts from 38 different banks and enables them to research and open accounts in just a matter of keystrokes. The platform puts clients in control of their cash, giving them access to market-leading and exclusive rates from a growing panel of UK banks, consolidated reporting and regular new rate alerts to ensure that their cash is working as hard as possible for them 24/7. For more information, see www.flagstoneim.com or watch a short film explaining what we do and how it benefits clients by clicking here.  

All of the UK banks on the Flagstone platform are authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the PRA. Deposits placed with any of these banks via the Flagstone platform are afforded exactly the same Financial Services Compensation Scheme protection (i.e. £85,000 per individual depositor per authorised institution) as if the client placed the deposit directly with the bank.

SMEs react to Sajid Javid’s economic vision as the major parties prepare to woo voters

Jenny Tooth, CEO of the UK Business Angels Association, and Luke Davis, CEO IW Capital, asses the relationship between Sajid Javid’s vision and SMEs

Speaking in Manchester, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sajid Javid has announced the fiscal vision for Britain should the Conservatives be elected to be the ruling party at the next General Election. Setting out his three rules for fiscal policy, a clear shift from previous Conservative Party policy regarding rates of borrowing was the headline announcement. Whilst maintaining that fiscal responsibility and spending within their means was imperative to the Conservative’s vision, investment increases are now central to Javid’s plan, increasing the limit of investment spend by the government to 3% of GDP, theoretically creating an extra £20bn per year.

With John McDonnell’s vision to be laid out in Liverpool later today, business leaders have reacted to Sajid Javid’s speech and the implications of the Conservative vision set out for the electorate.

Jenny Tooth OBE, CEO of the UK Business Angels Association, commented:

It seems that both political parties are going to attempt to win over voters in the regions. With Labour and the Conservatives announcing their economic visions in two of the great northern cities, just 20 miles apart, speaks volumes. For too long there have been investment disparities across our country. The independent UK 2070 Commission unveiled earlier this year found that the UK was one of the most imbalanced developed economies. Given that 99.9% of British businesses in the UK are SMEs, more simply has to be done by whoever controls the offices of power in Whitehall to provide greater assistance to regional SMEs. It seems that the Conservatives are putting forward a vision to increase investment opportunities across the nation, but we need to wait and see from the other parties to conclude just how seriously the major political parties value SMEs in the UK.”

Luke Davis – CEO of SME investment provider IW Capital comments:

“Economics are seemingly becoming more and more central to the campaigns of the major parties as they set out their policy for the upcoming election. Economic growth is clearly essential for job creation and future prosperity, but one area that has not so far received very much attention is the SME arena. SMEs employ around 16million people in the UK – half of the private sector workforce – and contribute around £2trillion to the economy. Unlocking the latent potential and ambition in these firms could prove to be a powerful catalyst to wider growth and new jobs. The UK’s greatest industrial asset is our people and their ideas, translating this into tangible growth will require support and continual investment, but cannot be ignored.”

SME investment is the elephant in the general election war-rooms

Political uncertainty has caused a reduction of business investment in the UK by 11%

Jenny Tooth OBE, CEO of the UK Business Angels Association, calls for an end to “deafening silence” of politicians regarding SME investment

Now that the majority of the party leaders have launched their general election campaigns, there will now be five weeks of battling to decide which prospective vision for Britain captures the imagination of British voters best. However, the elephant in the room still remains the sustainability of the British economy post-Brexit, and how to reinvigorate investment that has dried up throughout the three and half years of political limbo and chaos.

Uncertainty in the British economy due to an inability to find a Brexit resolution has seen business investment into the UK cut by 11 percent, or the equivalent of £20bn. Just last month, the Office for National Statistics announced that labour productivity in the second quarter of 2019 fell by half a percent, the worst performance since 2014. Now, with an election looming and no guarantee that a majority will be secured, British businesses have been thrown further into the lurch regarding investment opportunities for growth.

Jenny Tooth OBE, CEO of the UK Business Angels Association, has called on leading ministers at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) to speak up for SMEs to provide much needed confidence and stability.

“The silence from the ministers at the Department for (BEIS) has been deafening. Just a month ago we had a proposed Withdrawal Agreement that at the very least, gave businesses an idea of what the future looked liked, and how they needed to plan ahead. Now, we are in an election cycle, and we are back to square one.

There are 5.9 million SMEs in the UK. In other words, 99.9% of the businesses in the UK are SMEs. How can an economy be galvanised and strengthen if its very lifeblood is left in the precarious position of not knowing what is on the horizon. 60% of the British workforce works within an SME, with SMEs accounting for 52% of all turnover in the British economy. I find it quite remarkable that nothing is being said in defence of SMEs and their importance to the British economy.

I call on Andrea Leadsom at the Department for BEIS to speak up for small businesses on the election trail, and shadow secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey along with the other parties spokespeople to provide a clear vision as to how they will guarantee the longevity of SMEs in the UK to ensure that their dynamic input to the British economy will be maintained.”

1.8m British expats in EU should register now to vote in the UK’s general election: deVere CEO

31 OCTOBER 2019

British expats need to ensure that they are registered to vote in the UK’s forthcoming general election this December sooner rather than later.

This is the warning from the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.

Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, which has more than 80,000 mainly expatriate clients in 100 countries globally, is speaking out after it was confirmed that the UK is going to have a 12 December general election after the opposition Labour party agreed to a vote called for by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Mr Green notes: “Many expats, quite rightly, remain angry and frustrated that even if they were eligible to participate in the 2016 Brexit referendum, the registration process took too long and was too burdensome, and ultimately they were unable to do so.

“It is particularly galling as those expats resident within the EU27 are disproportionately affected by Brexit.  

“For instance, if there is a no-deal Brexit, which remains a slight yet dangerous possibility, it is likely that their pensions, insurance and healthcare will be adversely affected overnight.”

He continues: “As this critical general election is, in effect, a second Brexit referendum, they should act now to register to vote in order to ensure their voice is heard.

“This will also help to counteract the injustice of the fact that 700,000-plus British expats are disenfranchised from the UK political system after 15 years overseas and were denied the vote on something that directly affects them.
 
“All other G7 countries except the UK allow their citizens voting rights for life. Why is Britain different? It’s especially frustrating that many are still liable for UK inheritance tax, amongst others, but are not allowed to vote in the UK after 15 years. 

“Whatever happened to ‘no taxation without representation’?”

Mr Green concludes: “Expats’ futures hang in the balance with this general election as it will inevitably shape Brexit’s direction of travel.” 

“If they are eligible to do so under the current archaic rules – which must be updated in the next parliament – expats should register to vote sooner rather than later.”

https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Election 2019: Expect the pound and UK financial assets to be increasingly volatile

The pound and UK financial assets will be volatile in the run-up to Britain’s first December general election since 1923 – and will remain so in the event of another hung parliament.

This is the warning from Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations, as Labour announces it is now backing the government’s bill for a December election, regardless of the date.

Mr Green comments: “This is a critical stage in the slow-moving, damaging, torturous Brexit saga.

“Expect the pound and UK financial assets to be increasingly volatile in the run-up to the general election, given the wide-ranging set of outcomes.

“The most detrimental of these outcomes for sterling, UK financial assets and the wider British economy, include another hung parliament or a victory for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party.”

He continues: “Boris Johnson’s intention to secure a majority within the House of Commons is by no means guaranteed.  

“The Brexit Party will use the fact that Mr Johnson did not deliver Brexit by October 31 – something on which he staked his whole premiership. 

“The Remain vote could also be split between Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and the SNP. 

“Political fragmentation on this scale has never happened before in the UK.

“Therefore, a hung parliament looks like an alarming possibility, meaning there could be no majority to quickly and smoothly resolve the Brexit chaos.

“Should grinding deadlock continue, the UK economy would still haemorrhage investment and confidence. The fallout of Brexit has cost the UK three and a half years of lost opportunity and many, many tens of billions of pounds. This would only intensify with another hung parliament.”

He adds: “Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party will campaign on the most radical, left-wing manifesto in more than a generation.

“Should he win this election, his anti free-market policies – such as the re-nationalisation of industries from utilities to railways to postal services, and the forcing of companies to give 10% of their shares to staff – plus his high-tax policies, including a possible wealth tax, will spook the financial markets, hit long-term sustainable growth of the British economy, put more pressure on UK financial assets, and lead to a significant sell-off of the pound.

Mr Green concludes: “The general election is set to be the most contentious and uncertain in generations. Investors now need to protect and build their wealth and assets by ensuring they are properly diversified across asset classes, sectors, currencies and regions.”

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement