Category: Economics

Economics

China’s Economic Rebalancing

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Otaviano Canuto, Policy Center for the New South

China’s growth trajectory in the second decade of the century has been one of a rebalancing toward a new growth pattern, one in which domestic consumption is to rise relative to investments and exports, while a drive toward consolidating local insertion up the ladder of value added in global value chains also takes place. Services should also keep rising relative to manufacturing. Declining GDP growth rates from two digits in previous decades to 6% in 2019 – and likely lower ahead – would be the counterpart to rising wages and domestic mass-consumption, and to the transition toward higher weights of services and high tech.

We point out two major challenges in the rebalancing. First, the transition toward a less investment- and export-dependent growth model has been taking place from a starting point of exceptionally low consumption-to-GDP ratios. Besides high profit-to-wages ratios, low levels of public social protection and spending lead to high household savings. An additional challenge comes from the lack of progress in rebalancing between private- and state-owned enterprises, something that is taking a toll on productivity.

Economics

Trade Globalization

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Otaviano Canuto, Policy Center for the New South

In the 1990s and 2000s, the world manufacturing production to a substantial extent moved from advanced countries to some developing countries. This was the result of the combination of an increase of the labor supply in the global market economy, trade opening, and technological transformations that allowed for fragmentation of production processes. As a result, foreign trade expanded, and world poverty diminished. Such trade globalization process stabilized in the 2010s and tends to be partially reversed by the new wave of technological changes.

Economics

It’s Not Too Late! How to Build Wealth in Your 40s

Author ByCFI.co

Did you know that one in three older people only begin to start retirement planning two years ahead of time? You can see how this can make planning for retirement stressful, confusing, and can leave a lot to be desired. However, this also means you’re not alone and that building wealth in your 40s isn’t impossible. 

In fact, it’s never too late to begin building wealth and planning for retirement. However, it’s important that you begin with a strategy that makes sense so that you’re not throwing your hard-earned money away. 

Read on to learn how to build wealth in your 40s with our straightforward guide! 

Create an Emergency Fund

Since retirement is still years away, it’s important that you start an emergency fund sooner rather than later. This is where you’ll set aside money that you’ll use only in times of emergency. For instance, if you lose your job and need to pay rent, experience a major health issue, or need to do immediate repairs on your car or home. 

For emergency funds, it’s recommended to put aside enough money that will cover three to six months of living costs. How much you contribute is your own personal choice. If you have multiple streams of income, you may be able to set aside less. 

Deal With Debt

You next need to deal with any debt. With high-interest rates and a tanking credit score, debt can put a hamper on future plans as well as hinder your ability to put money towards retirement if you’re only paying the minimum each month. High-interest debt such as credit cards, loans, and car payments should be dealt with as soon as possible. 

Your mortgage payments may be able to remain the same if you’re near the final years of the mortgage. However, it may be helpful to make extra payments towards your mortgage in the early years in order to reduce your interest payments later on. 

Retirement Plans

Once you have an ample emergency fund and you’ve handled your debt, it’s time to focus on your retirement plans. Regardless of how you plan to spend your retirement, it’s recommended to maximise your employer contributions. You may also want to consider voluntary contributions because you’ll be able to get tax relief on your contributions up to the limit of £40,000.

If you’ve already made the maximum allowable contributions and are still willing and able to pay more, you still have options with the carry forward allowance. This allows you to use any unused allowances from the previous three years in the current year, as long as you were part of a pension scheme during those years. 

If you’re not able to contribute the maximum to your retirement plan currently, we still recommend using a retirement calculator. This helps you visualise your retirement in concrete terms. If you have trouble parting with your income, this may make it easier–you’ll be able to visualise how you’ll be living in 20 or so years! 

Limit Risk

Many people feel the need to take on some investment risk because they want to make up for the lost time. This is because the potential returns are higher, though those returns are far less guaranteed. However, it’s important to limit your risk, as you have far less time to recover from losses. 

A conservative level of risk would be to invest a percentage equivalent to your age in bonds, while the rest goes into stock. However, it’s important to speak with financial planners or accountants before you even begin making investments. They’ll be able to help you decide on how much to invest as well as the risk you’re able to handle. 

Life Insurance

If you don’t have life insurance now, it’s important to get sooner rather than later, as the policies are more affordable the younger you are. Many people have life insurance policies with their workplaces, but if you started with your company years ago, it may be worth speaking with the human resource staff about upgrading your package or policy or add second life insurance.

It’s also important that you add any additional family members or children to your policy. Last but not least, if you don’t go to a doctor every year, you may want to consider no exam policies that aren’t as stringent when it comes to yearly check-ups.

Set Your Priorities

When you start saving for retirement in your 40s, it may feel selfish if you have children or other dependent family members. As your retirement account begins to grow, you may feel the urge to take out some in order to send your children on vacation or help them more with college. However, it’s important to remember that your children still have their lives ahead of them. 

As you get older, it’s important that you’re able to help yourself and your spouse. By saving for retirement and making the right financial decisions, your children won’t have to worry about you as you grow older! 

How to Build Wealth in Your 40s: Start Planning Today 

It’s never too late to start building your wealth or plan for retirement, even when you’re in your 40s. When it comes to financial planning tips, the best takeaway is to start planning your strategy today. For instance, if you don’t have an emergency fund, we recommend starting with this first. 

If you lose your job or you need to make sudden medical payments, you’ll be taken care of with an emergency fund to dip into. Next, we recommend taking care of any high-interest debt that impacts your ability to contribute towards your pension. 

Maximise your contributions as much as possible, and try to visualise your retirement with the help of a calculator. Now that you know how to build wealth in your 40s, you’ll be well on your way to a comfortable retirement. 

Ready to stay on top of the latest banking and finance developments in the world today? Keep reading our finance archive! 

Banking

The Islamic Development Bank Group, in cooperation with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, organized a webinar on the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Investment Outlook

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Group hosted a webinar on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global investment outlook, which was organized in collaboration between the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Country Strategy and Cooperation (CSC) Department, IsDB on 17th November 2020 to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on FDI and trade in OIC member countries.

The Islamic Development Bank Group, in cooperation with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, organized a webinar on the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Investment Outlook

 The main objective of the webinar is to present the key findings of the World Investment Report 2020 – International Production Beyond the Pandemic with a highlight on FDI trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) worldwide, at the regional and country levels and emerging measures to improve its contribution to development. In addition to presenting IsDB Group Strategy during COVID-19 and its impact on OIC Member Countries and Investment Promotion Agencies (IPAs).

The Webinar also proposed adopting policies and strategies to revive investment and trade in member states to advance investment promotion activities, in order to support the IsDB Group efforts to assist Investment Promotion Agencies (IPAs) in member countries by assisting them in devising appropriate investment and trade policy responses to the ongoing pandemic

Mr. Oussama Kaissi, CEO of the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC), stated that “the COVID-19 pandemic has created a devastating global health crisis. According to UNCTAD’s 2020 World Investment Report, global flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) will be under acute pressure this year as a direct result of the pandemic. In order to combat these implications in member countries, IsDB and its group members have implemented a number of initiatives to maintain trade and investment flows. ICIEC will be an important part of the long-term recovery, supporting the growing demand for risk mitigation solutions”.

Mr. James Zhan, Director, Investment & Enterprise Division, UNCTAD, made a presentation which highlighted the key findings and policy recommendations found in its World Investment Report 2020: International Production Beyond the Pandemic.

Mr. Amadou Diallo, the Acting Director-General, Global Practices at the Islamic Development Bank in his speech stated that during COVID-19, the Bank provided technical assistance programs for the Islamic Development Bank Group such as RCI and ITAP to support the Member Countries by assisting them in developing suitable plans for investment and trade policy to confront the ongoing Corona pandemic. This is in the framework of a tripartite approach centered around the “response, recovery and rebuilding” pillars.

Mr. Mohammed Bukhari, Senior Investment Promotion & Regional Cooperation Specialist, CSC Dept., IsDB delivered a presentation on the impact of COVID-19 on MCs, particularly in foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment and investment promotion agencies (IPAs).

It is noteworthy that the private sector institutions of the Islamic Development Bank Group played an important role during COVID-19, as Mr. Asheque Moyeed, Division Head, Infrastructure & Corporate Finance,  the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD) made a presentation which focused on the efforts related to promoting investment in member countries, where the IsDB Group private sector institutions pledged with IsDB to provide $ 700 million to stimulate investment, finance trade, investment insurance and export credit in member countries. Two D-8 Egypt and Turkey are going to utilize around $270 million of this package.

The webinar brought together over 500+ participants from 113 countries, including government officials, Presidents & CEOs of local/international private sector companies, multilateral and financial institutions, individual investors, entrepreneurs, chambers of commerce & Industry, business associations, and investment promotion agencies

Economics

Biden will deliver a boost to stock markets and economy

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

President-elect Joe Biden will deliver a boost to global stock markets and the U.S. and world economy, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The observation from Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, comes as the Democrat candidate won the race to become the next U.S. president, defeating Donald Trump following a nail-biting vote count after Tuesday’s election.

Biden won more than 73 million votes, the most ever for a U.S. presidential candidate.

Mr Green says: “President-elect Joe Biden will deliver a boost to global stock markets and the U.S. and world economy.

“Although a Biden win was pretty much priced-in by the markets, his victory will eliminate uncertainty – which they loathe – and they will rally further as a result.

“Even possible legal challenges from Trump will be dismissed by investors who will instead be focusing on the renewed certainty and stability that a Biden White House will bring, including in key areas such as trade tensions with China, keeping the U.S. in the World Health Organization, resigning the Paris climate agreement, and abiding by other international agreements and long-standing international allies.”

He continues: “Biden will need to work with the Republican-led Senate to secure fiscal stimulus to bolster the economy.  He might struggle to get the $3trn wanted by Democrats, but some package is likely. 

“This will buoy the markets and would have investors think about a broader-based economic recovery – rather than a narrower, tech-heavy one.

“As the world’s largest economy, sustainable, long-term growth in the U.S. will have a positive ripple effect for the world economy.”

The reduced chance of massive fiscal stimulus will also mount pressure on the Federal Reserve “to inject further liquidity,” he notes.

In addition, the Biden win without full Senate support means less risk of regulation and higher corporate and personal taxes, which will give more oxygen to the markets and economy.

Mr Green adds: “In general terms, sectors to benefit from the Biden administration’s agenda include renewable energy, industrials and infrastructure, and small caps.”

The deVere CEO concludes with a warning: “Biden will need not only to work with the Senate but to heal a divided country.

“The world is looking at America, it needs to lead the world economy in a positive, forward-thinking and smartly way – and at pace.

“If it doesn’t, we can expect American economic dominance to ultimately be replaced by an emerging and fast-growing Asia.” 

Economics

Global foreign direct investment falls 49%, outlook remains negative

Author ByCFI.co Blogger
UNCTAD

The biggest drops occurred in developed countries, cutting across all major forms of foreign direct investment.

Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows fell 49% in the first half of 2020 compared to 2019, due to the economic fallout from COVID-19, reveals UNCTAD’s latest Global Investment Trends Monitor released on 27 October.

In the wake of the pandemic, lockdowns around the world slowed existing investment projects and the prospects of a deep recession led multinational enterprises to reassess new projects.

“The FDI decline is more drastic than we expected, particularly in developed economies. Developing economies weathered the storm relatively better for the first half of the year,” said James Zhan, UNCTAD’s investment and enterprise director. “The outlook remains highly uncertain.”

Developed economies suffer steepest fall

According to the report, developed economies saw the biggest fall, with FDI reaching an estimated $98 billion in the six-month period – a decline of 75% compared to 2019.

The trend was exacerbated by sharply negative inflows in European economies, mainly in the Netherlands and Switzerland. FDI flows to North America fell by 56% to $68 billion.

Meanwhile, the 16% decrease in FDI flows to developing economies was less than expected, due mainly to resilient investment in China. Flows decreased by just 12% in Asia but were 28% lower than in 2019 in Africa and 25% lower in Latin America and the Caribbean.

In the six months to June 2020, developing countries in Asia accounted for more than half of global FDI. Flows to economies in transition were down 81% due to a strong decline in the Russian Federation.

The decline cut across all major forms of FDI, the report shows.

The report shows that cross-border M&A values reached $319 billion in the first three quarters of 2020. The 21% decline in developed countries, which account for about 80% of global transactions, was checked by the continuation of M&A activity in digital industries.

The value of greenfield investment project announcements – an indicator of future FDI trends – was $358 billion in the first eight months of 2020. Developing economies saw a much bigger fall (-49%) than developed economies (-17%), reflecting their more limited capacity to roll out economic support packages.

The number of announced cross-border project finance deals declined by 25%, with the biggest drops in the third quarter of 2020, suggesting that the slide is still accelerating.

Figure 1: Global investment thermometers, 2020 Q1-Q3
Figure 1: Global investment thermometers, 2020 Q1-Q3
(Percent change vs 2019)
Source: UNCTAD
*The trend in greenfield projects refers to the first eight months of 2020.
**International project finance refers to (the trend in) the number of deals, as project values for the latest months are unavailable.
FDI inflows by region, 2020 H1 vs 2019 6-month average
Figure 2: FDI inflows by region, 2020 H1 vs 2019 6-month average
(Billions of US dollars and percent)
Source: UNCTAD

Outlook for full year remains negative

Prospects for the full year remain in line with UNCTAD’s earlier projections of a 30% to 40% decrease in FDI flows, the report indicates.

The rate of decline in developed economies is likely to flatten as some investment activity appeared to be picking up in the third quarter.

Flows to developing economies are expected to stabilize, with east Asia showing signs of an impending recovery.

The flows will hinge on the duration of the health crisis and the effectiveness of policy interventions to mitigate the economic effects of the pandemic. Geopolitical risks continue to add to the uncertainty.

Despite the 2020 drop, FDI remains the most important source of external finance for developing countries, according to UNCTAD. Global FDI stock stood at $37 trillion at the end of 2019.

Economics

More stimulus is welcomed – but what’s needed is smarter stimulus

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Stock markets are cautiously upbeat that a stimulus package can be agreed in the U.S. before the November 3 election – but even if it does happen, it’s likely to be a “short-lived sticking plaster” that masks the major long-term issue: unemployment.

This is the warning from Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organizations. 

It comes as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke again on Tuesday – the deadline imposed by the Speaker – as the two sides try and strike a deal over another significant fiscal stimulus package ahead of the election.

Earlier this month, Republican senators slammed a $1.8 trillion offer made by the Trump administration to the Democrats as too big, an offer Ms Pelosi dismissed as “insufficient.”

Discussions are due to continue on Wednesday upon the Secretary’s return to Washington.

Nigel Green warns: “No doubt, a breakthrough of the deadlock that would allow for more stimulus would provide a lifeline to millions and millions of Americans.

“U.S. and global markets are, generally, cautiously optimistic that a deal can be agreed by the two sides.

“There’s a sentiment that something will have to materialize – and this is fueling markets.

“However, the window of opportunity is closing and it is not yet a done deal.  

“If talks collapse, the markets will inevitably be disappointed and there’s likely to be a short-lived sell-off.”

He continues: “Even if Pelosi and Mnuchin can get another massive stimulus package agreed, and U.S. and global markets rise, this is likely to serve only as a sticking plaster.

“A market rally is going to be difficult to be sustained due to the enormous uncertainty created by other factors including the presidential election, a possible looming constitutional crisis in the world’s largest economy, and the growing Covid-19 infections in America and other major economies.”

The deVere CEO goes on to add: “Getting over the political impasse would help boost the economy and deliver much-needed money to Americans, but the major, lasting issue triggered by the pandemic remains: mass unemployment, which will hit demand, growth and investment.

“As such, a swift rebound for the U.S. economy is doubtful as unemployment claims continue to rise.  

“That V-shaped recovery talked about by so many? That will be impossible with so many millions facing long-term unemployment.” 

Whilst it is certainly positive that unemployment has fallen from 15% in the U.S. to 11% in recent weeks, it should be remembered that this is still at the same rate of the 2008 crash. 

In addition, a second wave of soaring unemployment could hit imminently as some support measures wind-down and business’ and households’ savings and resources have been already run-down.

Mr Green concludes: “Near-term support for sure, but a long-term strategy – a multi-year vision – for growth and investment is essential.

“What’s needed is not just more stimulus, but smarter stimulus.”

Economics

Why Biden or Trump must urgently secure stable relations with China

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Joe Biden or Donald Trump – whoever is the President of the United States come November, their ultimate challenge is to secure “stable relations” with China which would win an all-out trade war, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.

The warning from Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, comes as Mr Biden prepares to give his official acceptance speech on Thursday night to the Democratic National Convention to become the party’s nominee to run against Mr Trump on November 3.

Mr Green says: “Managing China and maintaining America’s fragile economic superiority over its major trade and commerce rival will be the defining foreign policy issue of this presidential election.

“Both the Democratic and the Republican candidates seemingly share a belief that ‘being tough’ on China — or whoever can knock China the most effectively– is going to do well with the electorate.

“Both Biden and Trump will up the China-bashing between now and November 3.”

He continues: “Whilst this strategy might be a political weapon to win the White House, whoever does become the next CEO of the world’s largest economy will have a golden opportunity to secure stable, normalised relations with China.

“And this should be high-up on their agenda.

“Cooperation will benefit both nations by helping to boost global economic growth, encourage investment, secure jobs, keep prices down for consumers, reduce unfair or illegal economic, commercial and technological practices, reduce poverty and environmental problems, and contribute to stopping human-rights abuses and military interventions.”

But there is another major reason, says the deVere CEO, why moving towards amicable relations with China cannot go unmet by the incumbent or the challenger.

“A de-escalation in U.S.-China tensions must be a top priority for whoever is in the Oval Office because it can be very reasonably assumed that China will win an all-out trade war.

“Why? Because America’s trade deficit with China is frequently over-estimated and barely gives it the upper hand.

“Also, China’s central bank — unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve — is not independent and can be made to cut interest rates to bolster domestic demand and devalue the currency to make Chinese exports even more competitive.

“In addition, China is better positioned than America – which has a record budget deficit – to help out industries hit hard by a trade war. 

“Plus, the ruling Communist Party of China can take the political impact of a trade war better than whichever party wins in the U.S. 

“The leaders of China don’t need to play popularity games.”

Mr Green concludes: “Whoever wins the U.S. presidential election must seize the momentum that a win gives a political leader and immediately seek amiable relations with the world’s second-largest economy.”

Economics

Investors buoyed by extra U.S. stimulus to support recovery

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Investors who have been “paying attention” have been topping–up their investment portfolios and will continue to do so, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.

The comments from Nigel Green, the chief executive and founder of deVere Group, which has $12bn under advisement, come as stock markets around the world further rallied on Tuesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced an expansion to its historic stimulus programme.

Mr Green affirms: “Global stocks have been buoyed by the news from the Fed – the world’s de facto central bank – to buy individual corporate bonds in addition to the exchange-traded funds it is already purchasing, to support the world’s largest economy.

“This extra stimulus acts as a ‘backstop’ or ‘floor’ for equities. 

“The additional Fed support was widely expected by the markets and therefore, investors who have been paying attention have been topping-up their investment portfolios recently as entry points will inevitably continue to go higher as we move forward.”

He continues: “It is likely that savvy investors will continue to enhance portfolios as the backing is likely to be maintained for years, not quarters.

“Also, it has been reported that President Donald Trump’s administration is preparing to unveil a $1 trillion infrastructure package. This will further boost asset prices.”

The deVere boss called the additional measures last week. 

He noted on Thursday June 11: “Further stimulus can be expected from the Fed – and also perhaps from Congress too – in the near future… This will support and likely boost asset prices moving forward. Investors will now be eyeing the opportunities before any fresh or enhanced stimulus packages are announced.”

London’s FTSE 100 and Frankfurt’s Dax both jumped 2.2% in morning trading on Tuesday, the pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 gained 2%. U.S. futures markets suggested that U.S. stocks would rise further when trading begins on Wall Street, with S&P 500 futures up 1%.

In Asia-Pacific, Tokyo’s Topix shot up 4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 3.9%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.4% while China’s CSI 300 index was 1.5% higher.

Nigel Green concludes: “Few things can fuel markets like another stimulus injection.

“The message investors are taking away is that the U.S. central bank and government are prepared to do whatever it takes to support the recovery.”

Economics

No-deal Brexit fears trigger investors to seek international options

Author ByCFI.co Blogger

Growing fears of a no-deal Brexit will prompt an increasing number of British and international investors to move their financial assets overseas out of the UK, believes the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and fintech organisations.
 
The observation from Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of deVere Group, which has $12bn under advisement, comes as the UK formally rejects an extension to the Brexit transition period – raising the risk of a no-deal departure at the end of the year.
 
Mr Green notes: “Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK is suffering its deepest recession in 300 years. Nevertheless, the government is sticking with its hard Brexit plans.

“Concerns over the fallout from a no-deal Brexit will prompt an increasing number of British and international investors to move their financial assets overseas out of the UK.”

He continues: “Should the UK leave with no-deal, the already weak pound – which is one of the world’s worst-performing currencies this year – is likely to remain weak for several years to come until Britain and the EU readjust. It has already shed about 20% of its value since the EU referendum in 2016.

“A low pound can help to reduce people’s purchasing power and lead to a drop in UK living standards. Weaker sterling means imports are more expensive, with rising costs being passed on to consumers.”

The drop in sterling is good for UK exports some insist, however around half of the country’s exports rely on imported components. “These will become more expensive as the pound falls in value,” noted Mr Green.

“In addition, a weaker pound is, of course, bad news for British expats, amongst others, who receive income or pensions in sterling and as Brits looking to travel overseas,” he added.
 
The deVere CEO goes on to say: “Britain appears to be sleepwalking towards an economic blackhole.
 
“People are already becoming increasingly nervous about this situation.  Many will, inevitably and quite sensibly be looking to build and protect their wealth by moving assets overseas through various established international financial solutions.
 
“The pace of this trend is likely to increase over the next few months as the issues look set to ramp-up.”