Finbold.com has launched the Coronavirus
Research Index (CRI) to identify countries that are putting in the most
effort in finding ways to manage the COVID-19 disease.
The index ranks the countries based on the number of active medical
coronavirus studies that show which countries are actually executing the most
research related to COVID-19 to understand the virus to find the effective
means of managing the disease. According to the Index, China, the United
States, and France are the top three countries leading in the number of active
studies related to coronavirus.
China leads in
studying coronavirus
The CRI shows that China has 60 active studies, with the United States
having 49 ongoing studies. On the other hand, France has 26 active studies.
Idas Keb, a co-founder at Finbold, on the findings commented:
“Interestingly, the index also reveals that while there is some correlation
between countries that have the most COVID-19 cases and the number of medical
studies, the majority of the countries are still far behind on coronavirus
research. For example, Spain, which is second by the number of confirmed
coronavirus cases, is not within the top 5 countries in the research index.”
The report features studies that are labeled as ‘Active’ on the
ClinicalTrials.gov database. The studies have a different status like
Recruiting, Not yet recruiting, Active not recruiting and Enrolling by
invitation.
The research index also highlights the study title, the status of the study,
the institutions carrying out the study and the interventions placed into
managing the condition.
Currently, the Finbold.com Coronavirus Research Index identifies 39
countries with ongoing studies on COVID-19. All listed countries have confirmed
cases of the novel coronavirus.
Just under half of firms in the UK (46%) and US (45%) predict their country will go into recession in 2020, according to research by trade finance provider Stenn
The poll of over 700 senior executives at medium-large sized businesses across the UK, US and China, also revealed that well over a third (37%) of UK firms and one in three (35%) US firms expect to see a global recession or international global crisis in 2020
In the UK, a third (33%) of firms expect the economy to shrink in 2020, with well over a tenth (14%) expecting it to contract by 1-3%
A further 6% expect the UK economy to stay flat with no growth
In the US, almost one in five (16%) expect the economy to shrink in 2020, most likely by 1-3% (7%)
In addition, 6% also expect it to stay flat with no growth.
Dr. Kerstin Braun, President of Stenn Group, commented: “2019 was
weaker than expected and the stakes are only higher for 2020.
Governments around the world are having to act forcefully to prevent the
economic hit from Covid-19 deepening, taking a coordinated approach
and opening the liquidity pipe for both fiscal and monetary support.
While a low interest rate provides an important cut in borrowing
costs for businesses and consumers at this delicate moment, the
coronavirus outbreak will be a real test of the health of the UK and US
economies. Lowering rates alone isn’t enough to be effective in offsetting the
economic impact of Covid-19. We already know the Chinese economy is going to be
hit in the first and second quarter.
“For us, the plunge in oil coupled with the economic damage of Covid-19 marked the beginning of a global recession. Our research showed that at the beginning of the year, half of UK and US businesses predicted a recession and a third predicted an international global crisis, and just three months into 2020 and we’re starting to see this play out.”
Methodology
The survey
was conducted by Atomik Research among 706 senior decision makers at
medium-large sized businesses, across the UK, US, and Chinese markets. The
research fieldwork took place on the 18th – 28th November
2019. Atomik Research is an independent creative market research agency that
employs MRS-certified researchers and abides to MRS code.
About Stenn
Stenn
International Ltd. is a UK-based, non-bank trade finance provider specialising
in cross-border trade. Stenn’s trade finance solutions are comprehensive and
can be combined to cover the entire supply chain from purchase order to
delivery of goods. Innovative practices allow Stenn to finance in sectors and
geographic regions currently underserved in global trade. The company
operates globally with offices in Buenos Aires, Los Angeles, Dallas, New
York, Miami, London, Amsterdam, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Mumbai, Chennai, Singapore,
Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai and Qingdao.
The outbreak of the
coronavirus disease, COVID-19 continues to pose a significant threat to
businesses in the UK. The impact on supply chains, transport and international
travel is causing businesses to consider the impact of coronavirus on their
current or future contractual agreements. Here Julie Hunter a
commercial solicitor at Stephensons Solicitors LLP, discusses why it’s
important for businesses to understand their legal rights and obligations in
light of this global pandemic.
The outbreak of the coronavirus disease COVID-19
continues to cause severe disruption and uncertainty to global trade. Now
categorised as a global pandemic by the World Health Organisation, businesses
must consider whether the impact of the coronavirus could cause them to default
on their contractual obligations, whether this may be an inability to supply
goods due to the effect on the supply chain, an inability to provide services
due to travel restrictions or the cancellation of planned public events due to
quarantine. Many larger businesses have already started to issue statements to
their customers and suppliers in advance of any potential disruption caused by
the outbreak.
Can your business delay performance or fail to
fulfil its obligations under a commercial contract due to the coronavirus
outbreak without facing liability? The often-standard force majeure clause
contained in commercial contracts may mitigate risks and help parties navigate
the difficulties caused by the outbreak.
What
is Force Majeure?
A force majeure clause may relieve a party from
performing its obligations under a commercial contract due to the occurrence of
events which are unforeseeable or outside of its control. You can only rely on
a force majeure clause if it has been drafted into your contract. A force
majeure clause cannot be implied.
As force majeure has no defined meaning in
English law, the effect of a force majeure clause will depend upon the way it
has been drafted into each individual contract. Typically, force majeure
clauses can cover:
acts of God, such as natural disasters and extreme weather events
terrorist attacks, civil war and breaking off diplomatic relations
compliance with a law or order, rule or direction of the government
embargos
epidemics or pandemics
Your force majeure clause may give you the right
to suspend performance of the contract for a certain period of time or allow
either you or your counterparty to terminate the contract entirely on the
occurrence of a force majeure event.
COVID-19
as a Force Majeure
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation
classified the coronavirus as a global pandemic. If your force majeure clause
covers the occurrence of a pandemic, then the coronavirus outbreak is likely to
constitute a force majeure event.
If your force majeure clause does not cover
pandemics, you must carefully consider whether the outbreak or its effects
could fall into any of the other force majeure events specified in your
contract. For example, you may find it possible to argue that the quarantine or
isolation restrictions effecting your supply chain constitute a ‘work stoppage’,
or that any international travel restrictions imposed in the UK and other
countries which restrict performance could constitute ‘compliance with an order
of a government’.
The court often interprets the precise wording of
force majeure clauses strictly. If the situation is unclear, you should seek
specialist legal advice on whether the coronavirus would constitute a force
majeure event under your contract.
Invoking
the clause
Even if the coronavirus qualifies as a force
majeure event under your contract, you may not necessarily be able to invoke
your rights under the force majeure clause.
Most force majeure clauses require you to
demonstrate that the event itself has prevented performance of your contract.
This means that if the coronavirus outbreak is simply causing performance to be
more difficult, costly or time-consuming for your business, this may not
necessarily be enough to invoke the clause.
Additionally, it may not always be desirable to
invoke your force majeure clause for commercial reasons. You may need to
consider the following matters:
Is the force majeure clause / event open to interpretation? Your counterparty may dispute your entitlement to any force majeure remedies and seek to enforce performance of the contract.
Could your insurance policy cover any losses or business interruption instead?
Will other parties / business be facing similar problems with supply or performance? Could you negotiate new terms to navigate the issues?
Would exercising the force majeure clause damage your ongoing relationship with the counterparty? Is there a reputational risk if the matter became public?
Breach
of contract
It is possible that the effects of the outbreak
on your business may not be covered by the force majeure clause as drafted or
you may not have the option of relying on a force majeure contract at all.
If this is the case, any failure to perform your
obligations under the contract (even if the failure is attributable to the
coronavirus) may constitute a breach of contract which you could be liable to
the counterparty for. However, there may be other mechanisms in the contract or
under English contract law generally which may assist you and it is imperative
to obtain legal advice should you find yourself in this situation.
Seeking
a legal specialist
If you are currently considering entering into
new contracts or are reviewing your contracts in light of the coronavirus, you
should seek legal advice on strengthening your force majeure clause.
If you are currently facing threats of litigation over failed performance caused by the coronavirus or are considering invoking your force majeure clause, it is important to seek legal advice on your rights of termination and breach of contract.
About
Stephensons
Stephensons Solicitors LLP is a full-service law
firm with offices in Bolton, London, Manchester, St Helens and Wigan.
AMID all the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus outbreak business
owners may feel their fate isn’t in their own hands – but in fact there’s lots
that they can do to help them take control.
David Tew
“These are uncertain times. No-one knows exactly how this is going to play
out. But there are certain things you can do to protect your business,” said
David Tew, a dispute resolution specialist with Cartmell Shepherd Solicitors.
“A bit like the advice across society about taking sensible steps such as
washing your hands, there are steps you can take as a business to protect
yourself,” said David.
Here David shares half a dozen simple steps aimed at helping you and your business to be prepared and to focus on what you can control.
1. Check your ongoing contracts
“Check your contracts. What are your obligations and your rights?
“Will coronavirus allow a contracting party to pull out of its obligations
on an existing contract? It depends very much on what is the exact wording in
the contract.
“In particular you should be checking is there a force majeure clause in
your contracts which allows a party to suspend or terminate the performance of
its obligations when certain circumstances beyond their control arise.
“If there is not a force majeure clause then it is possible to look at the legal doctrine of ‘frustration’ where it is impossible to complete a contract because of a change of circumstances outside your control. But this is open to different interpretations and may be difficult to rely on, highlighting the importance of ensuring that your contracts are fit for purpose.”
2. Check your insurance policies
“Have a close look at your business insurance policy to see if you have any business interruption coverage and check exactly what those terms are.”
3. Carry out a risk assessment
“Carry out a general risk assessment on all parts of your business to identify exactly what is at risk, and then focus on controlling those areas which are within your control.”
4. Take practical steps
“So far much of the focus has been on the international aspect of
coronavirus. But that is set to move to a more domestic level and it is
important as a business owner that you do everything you can now to make sure
you, your employees, your supply chain and your clients are as prepared as
possible.
“If we are moving towards a situation where the advice will be for more
people to self-isolate, or if there are restrictions of movement, then there
are practical steps that you can take now to mitigate those risks.
“If you want to move to more remote working, then check the practical issues
that will involve. Do the business processes and procedures work remotely?
Check employee policies – do they cover working from home? Is it practical for
all employees to work from home? Do they have a safe environment to work in?
“Review your supply chain. Have a discussion with those in your supply chain and discuss action plans with them.”
“Identify ways you can work together. There will be cases where because of
the way a contract has been worded, it is within your legal right to ensure
that those obligations are met. But that might not be the best approach when it
comes to long-term business relationships.
“You are likely to want those relationships to be positive in the long term.
And while the temptation might be to jump on the specific wording in a
contract, remember that your clients and customers will still be here long
after this situation has come and gone. How you act now, is likely to affect
those business relationships in the future.
“By showing flexibility and understanding and being willing to restructure that arrangement in the short term, is likely to be of benefit in the long term.”
6. Ensure you have good legal advice
“A good solicitor will help you with your concerns and give you the advice
on how you can best protect your business. We have a six-strong team in dispute
resolution at Cartmell Shepherd led by director Mark Aspin. If you are unsure
about anything it is always best to ask.”
The worst global
market sell-off since the 2008 crash will become an important
buying-opportunity for investors, affirms the chief executive of one of the
world’s largest independent financial advisory and services organisations.
The prediction by
Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, comes after equities lost a tenth
of their value this week as investors piled into havens on growing concerns the
coronavirus outbreak will hit the world economy and impact corporate profits.
Mr Green notes:
“Until this week, the markets had largely shrugged off the impact of the
outbreak of coronavirus. We warned about complacency leaving many
wide-open to nasty surprises.
“This has now
changed. Investors have done a ‘one eighty’ – from a muted overly confident
reaction to the serious and far-reaching global issue of coronavirus to running
like headless chickens.
“Both extremes
are worrying and could potentially wreak havoc on investors’ returns.”
He continues: “However,
the worst global market sell-off since the 2008 crash will almost certainly
become an important buying-opportunity for many investors.
“With markets on
the brink of correction territory, panic-selling, mis-pricing of high quality
equities, and lower entry points, this could turn out to be one of the key
buying opportunities in the last 10 years.
“Some of the most
successful investors will embrace volatility to create, maximise and protect
their wealth.
“As ever in times
of increased turbulence, there will be winners and losers. A professional fund
manager will help investors take advantage of the opportunities that volatility
presents and mitigate potential risks.
Earlier this
week, Mr Green noted: “In the current volatile environment, investors – including
myself – will be revising their portfolios and drip-feeding new money into the
market to take advantage of the opportunities whilst reducing risk at the same
time.”
The deVere CEO
concludes: “Global investors should not be spooked by the return of volatility
on stock markets but, where possible use it to their financial
advantage.
“Of course,
no–one knows for sure what will happen in the immediate future but, as stock
markets typically rise over a longer-term period, now is the time to capitalise
on the more favourable prices of decent stocks.
“It can be
expected that in coming days, serious investors will be bargain-hunting.”
Investors remain
complacent about an imminent Coronavirus-triggered market correction of up to
10 per cent, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial
advisory organisations.
The warning from
deVere Group’s chief executive and founder, Nigel Green, comes as global
equities registered losses on Monday following a surge in cases in Italy, Iran
and South Korea over the weekend, and as the first cases are confirmed in
Kuwait, Bahrain and Afghanistan.
Mr Green
comments: “Global financial markets retreated on Monday as they reacted to the
coronavirus headlines over the weekend. But it is likely that they will quickly
rebound, as they have consistently done in recent weeks.
“Indeed, stocks
keep on reaching record highs.
“This is because
many investors remain complacent about the far-reaching impact of coronavirus,
which is continuing to spread – and a faster pace. This will inevitably hit
financial markets and investors’ complacency leaves many wide open to nasty
surprises.”
He continues:
“Major global companies, especially those with heavy exposure to the Chinese
economy, are lowering profit guidances due to the outbreak. This will have a
knock-on effect across international supply chains and throughout
economies. But is the message being heard by investors?
“In addition,
coronavirus has struck at a time when major economies, including Japan,
Germany, India and Hong Kong are facing a downturn due to other factors such as
the U.S.-China trade dispute and political protestors, which could hit the
world economy.”
The deVere CEO
goes on to add: “Until such time as governments pump liquidity into the markets
and coronavirus cases peak, a near-term correction – of up to 10 per cent – is
increasingly likely.
“We are hoping
for a V-shaped recovery, but our current view is that it will be U-shaped.
“Against this
backdrop and with the ongoing uncertainty over the direction of stocks and
other risk assets, multi-asset portfolios might be favoured by global
investors, given that they offer diversification of risk as well as of return.”
Nigel Green concludes
with a warning: “Global markets are at high valuations and the impact of the
coronavirus on profits appears largely underestimated.
“In general
terms, stocks have hardly been deterred by the coronavirus outbreak. This
complacency is concerning.
“Investors need
to ensure that their portfolios are coronavirus-proofed as cases jump and a
market correction looks more likely.”
